What the World’s Central Banks Are Saying About Gold
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July 15, 2026
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July 15, 2026
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July 15, 2026
What the World’s Central Banks Are Saying About Gold
Every year the World Gold Council, working with the research firm YouGov, asks the world’s central banks how they think about gold. The 2026 edition drew 76 responses, the most in the survey’s nine years, with fieldwork running from 5 February to 19 May 2026.[1] This commentary walks through the results in plain language, in a question-and-answer format.
Within the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, gold is currently held for its long-term and structural role, based on the data we see in our KFSC Macro Intelligence work. Central banks are, as a group, among the largest official holders of gold, so their stated intentions are one of the longer-term signals from money, debt, and central-bank demand that our advisors review. A survey is a reading of that signal - nothing more.
The reading we rank first is direction: is the official sector, on balance, buying gold or selling it? For years the direction has been buying - the report’s own accounting puts the recent pace near 1,000 tonnes a year, roughly double the average of the decade before[1] - and the answers in this survey describe an intention, in aggregate, to continue.[1] In our reading of the record, the opposite backdrop is the one to respect: the heaviest stretch of official selling overlapped gold’s weakest years in the 1990s, and large announced sales have weighed on the price in the short term. That record is not one-way - gold also rose through much of the 2000s while central banks were still net sellers - so we treat direction as a backdrop reading, not a switch that moves the price by itself. History for context, not a prediction.
If anything here raises a question about your own strategy or risk option, that is exactly what a conversation with your advisor is for. As always, please call us with any and all questions.
Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
Every figure in this piece is a survey answer from a central bank about its own national reserves. Central banks hold reserves for reasons individual investors do not have - currency stability, trade, emergencies - and their plans can change. Their answers are information about official demand, not advice for your account and not a claim about where the gold price goes next.
Q1. What is a central bank, and why does it hold gold?
A central bank is a country’s official institution for money. It issues the national currency, sets the short-term interest rate, oversees the banking system, and manages the nation’s reserves - the pool of foreign currencies and gold a country keeps on hand for stability, for trade, and for emergencies. Nearly every country has one.
Gold is part of those reserves almost everywhere: 93% of the central banks answering this year’s survey hold gold (70 of 75 responding).[1] Measured across all countries, gold made up about 26% of total world reserves in Q3 2025 when valued alongside foreign exchange - second only to the US dollar at 42%.[1][3]
Q2. Who ran this survey, and who answered it?
The World Gold Council is a membership organisation for the gold industry - by its own description it “champions the role gold plays as a strategic asset,” which is worth keeping in mind when reading its research. For the ninth year in a row it worked with YouGov, an independent research firm, to field the questionnaire, which was offered in English, Arabic, French, and Spanish. Central banks under sanctions were not contacted.[1]
Of the 76 banks that answered - a 51% response rate among those contacted, and up from 73 responses last year - 58 are in emerging-market and developing economies (EMDE) and 18 are in advanced economies. The report notes that most responses arrived after the start of the Middle East conflict, so the answers reflect this year’s geopolitical backdrop.[1]
Q3. What do they expect for the next 12 months?
The survey asks the question two ways. First, the world: 89% of respondents expect global central-bank gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, and the other 11% expect no change (base 74).[1] Second, their own institution: 45% expect their own bank’s gold reserves to rise - the highest reading in the survey’s history, and up from 43% last year - while 54% expect no change and 1% expect a decline.[1][2]
Two balancing details. The near-unanimous global expectation actually eased, from 95% a year ago to 89% now. And the buying intention is concentrated: 53% of emerging-market banks expect to add to their own reserves, versus 18% of advanced-economy banks - so a majority of all banks still expect their own holdings to stay where they are.[1]
Q4. And five years out - gold versus the US dollar?
Respondents were shown today’s reserve mix and asked where each share sits five years from now. For gold: 84% said higher, 11% unchanged, and 5% lower - and the “higher” camp is up from 76% in last year’s survey.[1][2] For the US dollar the picture inverts: 74% said lower, 15% unchanged, 11% higher. The euro splits (42% higher, 38% unchanged, 19% lower), and 67% expect the Chinese renminbi’s share to rise - though from a base of just 1% of world reserves today.[1][2]
Worth remembering: these are directional opinions about shares of reserves, not price targets, and the starting points differ enormously - the dollar begins at 42% of world reserves, gold at 26%, the renminbi at 1%.[1][3]
Q5. Why do central banks say they hold gold?
Among the 18 factors offered, five stood out: gold’s performance during times of crisis (90% - a record high for this factor in the survey), its role as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge (84%), its use as a portfolio diversifier (83%), its place in a formal reserves diversification policy (80%), and its role as a geopolitical risk hedge (78%).[1]
The geopolitical answer shows the widest gap between the two groups of banks: 85% of emerging-market respondents called it relevant, versus 56% of advanced-economy respondents (45 of 53 versus 9 of 16).[1] The report reads the year-over-year consistency of the top three reasons as central banks describing gold as a strategic holding, not a trade.[1]
Q6. What is on their minds when they manage reserves?
Asked which topics matter for reserve-management decisions, 92% named interest-rate levels (70 of 76), 88% geopolitical instability (67 of 76), and 79% inflation (60 of 76). Geopolitical instability moved ahead of inflation this year - a reshuffle the report links to the conflict that began during fieldwork. Potential trade conflicts and tariffs (54%) and concerns over fiscal sustainability - how governments handle debt and spending - (53%) round out the top five.[1]
Emerging-market banks feel these pressures more than advanced-economy banks do: 95% versus 67% on geopolitics, 84% versus 61% on inflation, and 60% versus 33% on trade conflicts.[1]
Q7. How would they pay for new gold - and where do they keep it?
Funding first, a question new to this year’s survey. Among the 34 banks that intend to add gold, half (50%) would fund purchases through a domestic purchase programme in local currency - typically buying from mines at home - while 38% would sell existing reserve assets and 32% would use newly accumulated reserves.[1]
On storage: the Bank of England remains the most-used vault among respondents, named by 57%, with domestic storage second at 49% and the Bank for International Settlements at 16%. The Swiss National Bank fell to 6% from 12%, and one in five banks (20%) now prefers not to say where its gold sits, up from 8% - a jump the report says may have lowered the other readings.[1] Change is picking up at the margin: 10% diversified their overseas storage locations in the past 12 months (2% the year before) and 9% moved more gold into domestic storage (5% before); 9% and 7% plan the same moves in the year ahead.[1]
Day to day, most treat gold as a hold-and-keep asset: 37% of gold-holding respondents actively manage it (base 68). Among those that do, 85% cite enhancing returns, 42% cite risk management - up sharply from 22% last year - and 35% cite maintaining a set percentage allocation; only 12% cite tactical trading.[1]
Q8. What does this mean for a KFSC client who is invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies?
For clients invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, this survey speaks directly to the reading we rank first at the top of this piece: direction. On that check, the answers still point to buying - 89% of respondents expect global central-bank gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, a record 45% expect their own bank’s reserves to rise, and gold’s crisis role was rated relevant by a record 90% of holders.[1] Central-bank demand is one of the longer-term signals from money, debt, and central-bank demand that our advisors review, and this year’s reading is consistent with why gold is currently included in the strategies.
It is just as important to say what the survey is not. It is not a price forecast: intentions can change, buyers can pause, and prices move on many forces at once, including interest rates and the dollar. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts, and this commentary treats the findings as third-party context, not as a prediction. A survey, by itself, changes nothing inside the strategies: portfolio decisions remain with your advisor and may change at any time.
For you, nothing is required. A report like this can be a useful check-in point: if the role of gold in your strategy, or the level of risk you are living with, feels different from what you expected, that is worth a conversation with your advisor. The goal is not to react to one survey. The goal is to make sure the risk option you are in, or considering, still fits you. Our advisors’ current read is in the Gold Read panel just below.
Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
Gold remains part of the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. The data still supports why it is included: central-bank demand remains strong, reserve diversification continues, and inflation and debt concerns have not disappeared. This year’s survey adds direct evidence on the demand side: a record 45% of central banks expect their own gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, and 84% expect gold to be a larger share of world reserves in five years.[1][2]
The ‘inflation and debt concerns’ are specific. Gross federal debt crossed $38 trillion in late 2025,[4] net interest on the debt ran near one trillion dollars in fiscal year 2025 - more than that year’s national defense outlays[8] - and debt held by the public sits near 100% of GDP, a level the Congressional Budget Office projects will pass the postwar record in the coming years.[7]
Who holds that debt is changing. China, still the world’s largest manufacturing nation and its largest goods exporter,[9][10] has cut its reported holdings of US Treasury securities from a peak near $1.3 trillion in 2013 to roughly half that level at the most recent reports available when this piece was prepared.[5] Two details balance that picture: reported figures can understate China’s true exposure, because some holdings sit at custodians in other countries, and foreign holdings of Treasuries overall remained near record highs in dollar terms - other buyers have stepped in as China stepped back.[5]
The price of borrowing long reflects it. The 10-year Treasury yield has spent this cycle well above the range it held through the 2010s, and the real (inflation-adjusted) 10-year yield turned positive in late 2022 and has stayed there through the start of 2026.[6] One reading is that as some large holders step back from longer maturities, the remaining buyers demand more compensation; inflation expectations and the supply of new debt push the same way. For gold this cuts both directions: a positive real yield is a headwind, because gold pays no interest, while the pressures behind it are part of why gold is held.
Behind it all sits the money. The M2 money supply expanded by roughly 40% between February 2020 and its 2022 peak, contracted in 2022 and 2023 in its first sustained decline in decades, and by late 2025 had resumed growing to new highs.[6] The open question our advisors watch - without predicting the answer - is how the Federal Reserve balances its inflation mandate against the government’s growing financing needs. These are conditions with as-of dates, not predictions. The rate signal is one counterweight; it does not by itself override the longer-term signals from money, debt, and central-bank demand.
Sources
This commentary was prepared on 07/14/2026. The findings reflect the World Gold Council and YouGov Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 (fieldwork 5 February to 19 May 2026; published June 2026) as provided to Keaney Financial Services Corp; figures outside that survey are attributed to the cited third-party sources.
Any forward-looking figures or outlooks referenced are produced by third-party data providers, official bodies, and news organizations and are subject to revision by those sources. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not originate forecasts. The firm’s role is analysis and contextualization of third-party data.
Numbered by first appearance in the body and matched to the red superscript citations above. All survey percentages are as published by the World Gold Council; the base (the number of banks answering each question) is stated with each figure. Combined categories follow the report’s own aggregation and may not sum to totals due to rounding.
[1] World Gold Council, & YouGov. (2026, June). Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026. World Gold Council. Cited for: all survey findings, bases, and year-over-year comparisons; the methodology (76 eligible responses, a 51% response rate, fieldwork 5 February to 19 May 2026); the accumulation averages of about 1,000 tonnes a year over the past four years versus about 500 tonnes over the preceding decade, which the report attributes to World Gold Council Goldhub demand and supply data; and the anonymous respondent comment quoted in Q4.
[2] World Gold Council. (2026, June). Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026: Infographic. World Gold Council. Cited for: the combined higher/unchanged/lower summaries for gold, the US dollar, the euro, and the renminbi, and the 45% own-reserves summary alongside its 2025 comparison.
[3] International Monetary Fund. (2025). Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), Q3 2025. As presented in reference [1], with gold added into the total. Cited for: the composition of world reserves (US dollar 42%, gold 26%, all others 16%, euro 15%, Chinese renminbi 1%).
References [4]–[10] are official statistical sources supporting the Gold Read panel; figures are stated with their as-of dates in the body, and official statistics are routinely revised.
[4] U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service. (2026). Debt to the penny [Data set]. Cited for: gross federal debt crossing $38 trillion in late 2025.
[5] U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2026). Treasury International Capital (TIC) system: Major foreign holders of Treasury securities [Data set]. Cited for: China’s peak holdings near $1.3 trillion in 2013 and the decline to roughly half that level at the most recent reports available at preparation, and total foreign holdings of Treasuries remaining near record highs in dollar terms.
[6] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026). Money stock measures (H.6) and selected interest rates (H.15) [Statistical releases]. Cited for: the M2 expansion of roughly 40% from February 2020 to the 2022 peak, the 2022–2023 contraction, the return to new highs by late 2025, and the level and sign of nominal and inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury yields through the start of 2026.
[7] Congressional Budget Office. (2026, January). The budget and economic outlook: 2026 to 2036. Cited for: debt held by the public near 100% of GDP and the projection that it passes the post-World War II record in the coming years.
[8] U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service. (2026). Monthly Treasury statement of receipts and outlays of the United States Government. Cited for: fiscal-year 2025 net interest near one trillion dollars, exceeding that year’s national defense outlays.
[9] World Trade Organization. (2025). World trade statistical review 2025. Cited for: China as the world’s largest goods exporter.
[10] United Nations Industrial Development Organization. (2025). International yearbook of industrial statistics 2025. Cited for: China as the world’s largest manufacturing nation.
Every data figure traces to a source above.
1. Compliance Disclosures and Risk Warnings
This commentary is published by Keaney Financial Services Corp for educational and informational purposes only. It is a diagnostic read of long-run gold price history and the monetary backdrop around it. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, or a guarantee of any outcome. Past performance is not indicative of future results and does not guarantee future returns. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Markets can be volatile and values can fluctuate due to economic, geopolitical, regulatory, and other factors. Readers should consult their own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making investment decisions. Keaney Financial Services Corp and its representatives do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any third-party data referenced herein.
2. Framework and Risk Management Disclosure
The KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, including its KFSC Macro Regime Model and four diagnostic frameworks (the Monetary Integrity Framework, the Liquidity Transmission Framework, the Strategic Scarcity Framework, and the Market Structure Framework), provides analytical tools used to support advisor decision-making. These tools are not automated systems, do not predict future market outcomes, and do not dictate trades or portfolio actions. All portfolio decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor based on their interpretation of available data, client objectives, and prevailing market conditions. Investing involves risk, including political and geopolitical instability, economic and monetary system changes, currency fluctuations, market liquidity conditions, and rapid price volatility. These factors may result in significant fluctuations in portfolio value and may not be suitable for all investors. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Asset allocation, diversification, and risk management strategies are designed to manage risk but do not guarantee profits or protect against losses.
3. Forward-Looking Statements Disclosure
This commentary contains interpretive analysis of long-run gold prices and the monetary conditions around them, written in clear, everyday language for a general reader. These statements are based on current observations, publicly-reported information, and analytical interpretation. There is no assurance current conditions will continue or follow any particular path. Any discussion of current conditions reflects interpretive analysis and is not a definitive explanation of causation or a prediction of future results. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Where this commentary references forward-looking expectations, those references are interpretive context drawn from publicly-reported third-party sources. Forecasting future market data is not part of the firm’s analytical methodology.
4. Allocation and Positioning Disclosure
This commentary is not intended as investment advice for the general public. It is specifically prepared for clients invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and may not apply to other investments managed by advisors at Keaney Financial Services Corp. outside of these strategies. The KFSC Risk Managed Strategies are discretionary, dynamic, and adaptive. Portfolio positioning, allocations, and exposures may change at any time without notice due to evolving market conditions and the advisor’s judgment. These strategies are implemented across six distinct mandates on a spectrum from Preservation of Capital through Aggressive Growth (Preservation of Capital, Conservative, Conservative Growth, Moderate, Moderate Growth, and Aggressive Growth), each with its own risk profile, volatility expectations, and portfolio construction approach. Suitability of any particular strategy for an individual client is assessed prior to investment. While the macroeconomic themes described in this commentary are derived from the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System and inform the firm’s broader outlook, the specific asset class allocations, position sizes, and underlying holdings may differ materially across strategies, consistent with each strategy’s risk mandate.
5. Methodology and Data Disclosure
The survey findings in this commentary are drawn from the World Gold Council’s Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026, conducted with YouGov between 5 February and 19 May 2026 and published in June 2026, as cited in the Sources. The survey drew 76 eligible responses, a 51% response rate among the central banks contacted; all questions were voluntary, so the base (the number of banks answering) varies by question and is stated wherever a figure appears. Percentages are as published by the World Gold Council; combined categories (for example, “higher” meaning moderately plus significantly higher) follow the report’s own aggregation, and components may not sum to totals due to rounding. The composition of world reserves is based on Q3 2025 IMF COFER data with gold added, as presented in the survey. The accumulation averages (about 1,000 tonnes a year over the past four years versus about 500 tonnes over the preceding decade) are the report’s own figures, which it attributes to World Gold Council Goldhub demand and supply data. Figures on United States federal debt, interest outlays, foreign holdings of Treasury securities, the money supply, and Treasury yields are drawn from the official sources cited in references [4] through [10] (the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Congressional Budget Office, the World Trade Organization, and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization), are stated with their as-of dates, and are subject to routine revision by those bodies. All figures are survey responses and third-party statistics, not measurements of any investment’s return; nothing here describes the return on owning gold, which would be reduced by dealer spreads, storage, insurance, fund or account fees, and taxes. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not originate underlying survey or market data and contextualizes third-party data within the KFSC Macro Regime Model. All data is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed and may be revised, restated, delayed, or estimated. Produced by Keaney Financial Services Corp. Prepared July 14, 2026.
6. Research, Data, and Technology Disclosure
Research, analysis, and data referenced in this material are developed through the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, which integrates multiple data sources, analytical inputs, and research processes. These sources may include contributions from non-affiliated third-party providers, including market data vendors such as LSEG, statistical agencies, central banks, and news organizations. Such sources are believed to be reliable but are not independently verified by Keaney Financial Services Corp. and are subject to revision. As part of the research and analytical process, advanced computational tools and artificial intelligence systems may be utilized to assist in the organization, synthesis, and interpretation of data. These tools support analysis within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, but they do not independently generate investment recommendations, do not make investment decisions, and do not replace the advisor’s judgment. All outputs are subject to human review, interpretation, and oversight. No amount of research, data analysis, or technological support can eliminate the inherent risks of investing or guarantee any specific outcome.
7. Specific Securities Disclosure
This commentary does not name, recommend, or specifically reference any individual security, exchange-traded product, fund, or financial instrument. References to gold are to the metal and its market price as a macroeconomic construct, not to any specific issuer or investment vehicle. Any exposure held in client portfolios is selected on the basis of advisor due diligence and the risk mandate of the specific KFSC Risk Managed Strategies within which the client is invested. No portion of this commentary should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security or asset.
8. Historical Event Selection and Dataset Disclosure
The information referenced in this material is drawn from the LSEG Workspace gold spot (XAU) series identified in the Sources. The decade patterns and the major drawdowns shown are read directly from that continuous series; they are descriptive periods within one series, not discrete events selected for backtesting or trend extrapolation. Past patterns are not a reliable predictor of future patterns. All figures are as of the dates and reference periods specified and are subject to revision as new information becomes available.
9. Statistical Interpretation and Non-Predictive Use Disclosure
All figures presented, including annual price changes, decade cumulative changes, and peak-to-trough drawdowns, are drawn directly from the data identified in the Sources and are provided for descriptive and contextual purposes only. These measures do not represent expected outcomes, do not imply probability of recurrence, and do not constitute forecasts or projections. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not claim that any condition described will continue, reverse, strengthen, or weaken. All forward-looking interpretations remain subject to uncertainty and advisor discretion.
10. Advisor Discretion Statement
All investment decisions are advisor-led and implemented through the applicable KFSC Risk Managed Strategy risk option. Clients select a risk option before investing, and the amount of gold is determined at the strategy/model level. Our advisors do not make individualized gold-position changes for each client inside the same strategy model. Advisors may review whether a client’s selected risk option remains appropriate based on risk tolerance, objectives, time horizon, liquidity needs, and changes in financial circumstances. Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
11. Business Entity Disclosure
Keaney Financial Services Corp. provides insurance and financial services. Ameritas Investment Company, LLC (AIC), Member FINRA / SIPC, provides securities and investments. Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC (AAS) provides investment advisory services. AIC and AAS are not affiliated with Keaney Financial Services Corp. Ernesto Keaney and Emmelis Keaney are Investment Adviser Representatives of Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC. Accounts are managed on the Ameritas Wealth Platform.