KFSC Institutional Intelligence • What the gold market data shows this past month • Six charts, in plain English
Data through 29 April 2026. CFTC positioning through 21 April 2026. Quarterly supply and demand through 2025 Q4. LSEG forward forecast through 2028.
Last month we wrote about why gold had declined 18.9 percent from its January peak over 57 days,[1] and why we were watching whether March 26 would prove to be the final trough.[1] A month later, gold's closing prices have remained above the March 26 level.[1] The dollar has weakened,[2] the Swiss franc has strengthened,[3] and our framework continues to assess structural conditions independently of short-term price movements.
Gold's price has risen by roughly 70 percent since late 2024.[1] Speculator positioning sits below prior cycle peaks.[4] Central bank net purchases are at multi-decade highs.[6] Quarterly supply has remained essentially flat across six years.[5] What follows is diagnostic, not predictive. We are happy to walk through what any of this means for you specifically, by phone or in person.
This past month, gold went up. The dollar went down.
How gold and the US Dollar Index diverged from March 27 to today
Daily prices from 27 March through 29 April 2026. Source: LSEG.
Picture two cars driving side by side down a highway. If one slows down and the other holds steady, the gap between them grows, even though only one car actually changed speed. The same thing happens with gold and the dollar. When the dollar weakens, gold looks more expensive in dollar terms, partly because the dollar itself moved. Across the 23 trading days shown, the dollar weakened by roughly 1.5 percent.[2] Gold finished about 1.4 percent higher.[1] Both cars moved. Historically, gold and the dollar tend to move in opposite directions during periods of currency uncertainty.
Why it matters: When the dollar weakens, the same dollar buys fewer goods, services, and commodities priced in dollars. Gold is one of several asset categories historically examined as a potential hedge against that loss of purchasing power, alongside other instruments evaluated within an overall portfolio.
Gold went up. The Swiss franc went up. Investors usually buy both for the same reason.
How gold and the Swiss franc moved together from March 27 to today
Daily prices from 27 March through 29 April 2026. The Swiss franc line rises when fewer francs are needed to buy one US dollar. Source: LSEG.
Imagine two smoke detectors in different rooms of your house going off at the same time. They are not wired together. They are independent devices in independent rooms. When both alarm at once, that usually means there is something in the air that both are picking up. Gold and the Swiss franc work like that for global money. Gold is a hard asset. The franc is the currency of a country with a long record of fiscal discipline and conservative monetary policy. The two have nothing to do with each other mechanically, but historically, when investors are uneasy about other currencies, capital has flowed toward both. This past month, both moved up against the dollar in roughly the same magnitude.[1][3]
Why it matters: Gold and the Swiss franc have shown periods of similar directional behavior during episodes of currency uncertainty, though the relationship is not constant across all periods. Co-movement of both assets is one of the variables being tracked here.
The price moved. The crowd did not.
How aggressively hedge funds are betting on gold, week by week
Weekly speculator positioning in gold futures, January 2018 through 21 April 2026. The dotted lines mark the high points of the 2020 and 2024 cycles. Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, via LSEG.
Picture a stadium that is sold out for the playoffs. Now picture that the season-ticket holders, the regulars who never miss a game, are not in their seats. The stadium is still full. Someone is filling those seats. But it is not the usual crowd. That is what is happening in gold right now. Every Tuesday, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes a snapshot of how speculators (mostly hedge funds) are positioned in gold futures. Historically, sustained gold price rallies have often coincided with rising speculator positioning. The current data shows: the latest reading is 297 thousand contracts.[4] The 2019 peak was 908.[4] The 2024 peak was 793.[4] Gold has risen by roughly 70 percent in US dollar terms since the 2024 peak,[1] while speculator positioning sits below the levels observed at either of the prior cycle peaks.[4] The price moved. The regulars did not.
Why it matters: If speculators are positioned at lower levels than at prior cycle peaks, the question of who is providing the bid becomes the relevant data point. The most likely categories are central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and physical buyers. Those buyer categories operate under different mandates and time frames than speculative traders. The composition of the buyer base is the structural data point worth understanding here.
Six years. Same supply. The price did the moving.
How much gold is mined, how much is bought, and the price, every quarter
Quarterly gold supply and how much was bought, in tonnes (left axis); the gold price in US dollars per ounce (right axis). Source: LSEG and the World Gold Council, 2020 through the end of 2025.
Gold mining capacity adjusts slowly. Opening a new mine typically takes ten years or more from discovery to first production, so total annual supply is essentially fixed in the short and medium term. What the data shows: across 24 quarters from early 2020 through late 2025, total quarterly supply has remained in a range of roughly 1,049 to 1,258 tonnes.[5] Over the same window, the recorded quarterly gold price moved from $1,571 to $4,314 per ounce.[5]
Why it matters: When demand has stayed elevated against a roughly fixed supply base, the price has historically been the variable doing most of the adjusting. This is a structural feature of scarcity economics, distinct from markets where producers can ramp output up or down quickly in response to price signals.
A bathtub that has been filling for years. LSEG projects it starts emptying in 2028.
How much gold the market expects to be available versus needed, through 2028
Bars show LSEG's estimate of total gold supply and how much was actually used, in tonnes per year. The line shows their calculated net balance, which crosses below zero in 2028. 2025 figures are actuals; 2026 through 2028 are LSEG's forecast, subject to revision.
Picture a bathtub. The faucet is running. The drain is open. As long as the faucet runs faster than the drain pulls, the tub fills up. As long as the drain pulls faster than the faucet runs, the tub empties. LSEG publishes a forward-looking model of gold supply (the faucet) and physical demand (the drain). For 2025, they estimate the faucet ran 1,163 tonnes faster than the drain pulled.[6] For 2026 and 2027, similar surpluses, +1,100 and +1,234 tonnes.[6] For 2028, the drain pulls 116 tonnes faster than the faucet runs.[6] That is the first year in their forecast where the tub starts to empty instead of fill.
Why it matters: A 116-tonne shortfall in a market that flows roughly 5,000 tonnes per year[6] is small in absolute terms. It is, however, the first negative reading in LSEG's multi-year forecast horizon. We include LSEG's forecast here because it is a major data provider's published projection and is publicly available. Forecasts inform analysis; they do not direct portfolio action. All forward figures are LSEG's, not KFSC's, and are subject to revision by LSEG.
Central banks have been net buyers of gold every year since 2010.
How much gold the world's central banks have been buying, by year
Tonnes of gold purchased by central banks, net, each year. 2025 is the actual figure; 2026 through 2028 are LSEG's forecast, subject to revision.
Think of central banks as the pension fund for an entire country. They are not retail traders. They are not hedge funds. They manage a nation's reserves under multi-year mandates, with decisions reviewed across committees and approved at the top of government. A purchase decision at this scale is not a reaction to a news cycle. It is a policy step that has been planned and signed off on. Central banks recorded net gold purchases of 611 tonnes in 2025,[6] with LSEG forecasting 650, then 630, then 750 tonnes through 2028.[6] The dollar value of those flows is in the tens of billions per year.
Why it matters: Why did central banks stop buying gold after the 1970s, and why did they restart? Gold's role in the international monetary system changed twice in living memory.
In August 1971, the United States ended the convertibility of dollars into gold for foreign central banks, the policy decision known as the Nixon Shock.[7] Within a few years, the Bretton Woods system was formally dismantled, and gold no longer backed major currencies. Central banks, which had held gold to settle international accounts, no longer had a reserve-management reason to keep it. Through the 1980s and 1990s, many were net sellers.
In 2009, in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, the IMF sold 200 tonnes of gold to India in a single transaction.[8] By the following year, central banks globally were net buyers for the first time since 1988. Emerging-market central banks in particular began accumulating gold to diversify away from dollar concentration in their reserves.
In February 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western governments froze approximately 300 billion US dollars of Russian central bank reserves held in dollar, euro, sterling, and yen assets. An IMF working paper later that year linked the subsequent acceleration in central bank gold buying directly to sanctions risk and the search for reserve assets that cannot be frozen by another government.[9] In the years since, official-sector buying has run at the highest sustained levels in the World Gold Council's records.[6]
Net official-sector buying is a category of reserve-allocation behavior, distinct from market-based price action.
■ SYNTHESIS
Putting it together.
The dollar weakened across this window and gold rose.[1][2] Two categories of conservative reserve holders, the Swiss National Bank (visible through franc strength)[3] and central banks broadly (visible through direct gold purchases),[6] are showing parallel directional behavior over the period observed. Speculator positioning sits below prior cycle peaks,[4] total supply has remained essentially flat,[5] and LSEG's forward forecast records the supply-demand balance turning negative for the first time inside its multi-year horizon.[6]
What we are watching next: whether central bank buying continues at the pace LSEG forecasts; whether speculative positioning catches up to price; whether LSEG's forecast supply-demand balance actually turns negative in 2028 or gets revised away. None of these will trigger automatic action. If you want to talk through what any of this means for your specific situation, we are available by phone or in person.
Diagnostic, not predictive.
Models diagnose. Advisors advise. Portfolios implement.
Sources
- [1] London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). Gold spot price (XAU=, BID), daily close data. Source: LSEG Workspace, Gold (XAU=) daily price chart.
Used for all gold price quotes, percentage changes, peak and trough dates, and the rebased gold series in Charts 1 and 2. Retrieved 29 April 2026. - [2] London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). US Dollar Index (.DXY, TRDPRC_1), daily close data. Source: LSEG Workspace, US Dollar Index (.DXY) daily price chart.
Used for the dollar weakening claim in the lede, the rebased US Dollar Index series in Chart 1, and the dollar percentage change in Chart 1's In Plain English box. Retrieved 29 April 2026. - [3] London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). US Dollar / Swiss Franc spot rate (CHF=, BID), daily close data. Source: LSEG Workspace, Swiss Franc (CHF=) daily FX chart.
Used for all Swiss franc claims in the lede, Chart 2, and the synthesis. Retrieved 29 April 2026. - [4] U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Commitments of Traders, Disaggregated Futures Only, Gold (Comex), Managed Money, weekly Tuesday close. Sourced via LSEG Workspace, chart titled "Gold Managed Money Net Position vs Price" (LSEG chart object 100173609).
Used for the latest CFTC reading of 297 thousand contracts, the 2019 cycle peak of 908.4 thousand contracts (24 September 2019), the 2024 cycle peak of 792.6 thousand contracts (24 September 2024), and all related claims about speculator positioning in Chart 3 and the synthesis. Data through 21 April 2026. - [5] World Gold Council via London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). Gold quarterly total supply (AU-TOT-SQ=RCA, COMM_LAST), physical demand (AU-PHY-DQ=RCA, COMM_LAST), and price. Source: LSEG Workspace, chart titled "Gold Quarterly Supply, Demand and Price."
Used for the supply range of 1,049 to 1,258 tonnes per quarter, the price range of $1,571 to $4,314 per ounce, the 2025 Q4 figures (supply 1,254 tonnes, demand 1,075 tonnes, price $4,314.12), and all related quarterly claims in Chart 4. Data 2020 Q1 through 2025 Q4. Retrieved 29 April 2026. - [6] London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). Gold Forward Supply & Demand Forecast, annual figures for 2025 actual and 2026 through 2028 forecast. Source: LSEG Workspace, table titled "Gold Forward Supply & Demand Forecast" (LSEG table object 100111607).
Used for total supply (4,812 tonnes 2025, then 4,955 / 5,030 / 4,840 forecast), physical demand (3,915 tonnes 2025, then 4,005 / 4,056 / 4,346 forecast), net balance (+1,163 / +1,100 / +1,234 / -116 tonnes), central bank net purchases (611 / 650 / 630 / 750 tonnes), and the "roughly 5,000 tonnes a year" market flow figure. Used in Charts 5 and 6 and related claims in the lede, Chart 6's multi-decade highs claim, and the synthesis. LSEG forecast last updated 9 March 2026; figures are subject to revision by LSEG. - [7] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve History. "Gold Convertibility Ends," August 15, 1971. Available at: federalreservehistory.org/essays/gold-convertibility-ends.
Used in Chart 6 to substantiate the Nixon Shock and the end of dollar-gold convertibility for foreign central banks. - [8] International Monetary Fund. Press Release No. 09/381: "IMF Sells 200 Metric Tons of Gold to Reserve Bank of India," November 2, 2009. Available at: imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr09381.
Used in Chart 6 to substantiate the 2009 transaction marking the resumption of major-scale official-sector gold accumulation. - [9] Arslanalp, S., Eichengreen, B., & Simpson-Bell, C. (2023). "Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?" IMF Working Paper No. 2023/014, January 2023. Available at: imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/01/27.
Used in Chart 6 to substantiate the link between the February 2022 freeze of Russian central bank reserves and the subsequent acceleration in central bank gold accumulation as a sanctions-risk hedge.
All figures verified against the underlying source data files on retrieval. LSEG forward forecast figures (Charts 5 and 6) are LSEG's, not KFSC's, and are subject to revision by LSEG.
Compliance Disclosures & Risk Warnings
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Forward-Looking Statements Disclosure
This commentary contains forward-looking statements and interpretive analysis regarding gold price behavior, geopolitical developments, liquidity conditions, and macroeconomic environments. These statements are based on current observations, historical comparisons, and analytical interpretation of available data.
Historical comparisons referenced in this material are provided for context only. While certain patterns have been observed across prior geopolitical, financial, and liquidity-driven stress periods, there is no assurance that current conditions will follow similar trajectories. Outcomes may differ materially due to changes in monetary policy, geopolitical developments, market structure, liquidity conditions, and other unforeseen factors.
Any discussion of current market behavior, including references to liquidity-driven declines, geopolitical repricing, macroeconomic parallels, or model-identified regime dynamics, reflects interpretive analysis and should not be construed as a definitive explanation of causation or as a prediction of future results.
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This commentary is not intended as investment advice for the general public. It is specifically prepared for clients invested in KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and may not apply to other investments managed by advisors at Keaney Financial Services Corp. outside of these strategies.
KFSC Risk Managed Strategies are discretionary, dynamic, and adaptive. Portfolio positioning, allocations, and exposures may change at any time without notice due to evolving market conditions and the advisor's judgment.
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Methodology & Data Disclosure
The analysis presented is based on data sourced from LSEG Workspace (Refinitiv), the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the World Gold Council, integrated within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System.
Calculations referenced in this commentary include rebased index series shown in Charts 1 and 2, computed as (current value ÷ 27 March 2026 baseline value) × 100. Forward net balance figures shown in Chart 5 are calculated by LSEG as the residual of physical surplus, ETF inventory build, and exchange inventory build, as reported in the LSEG forward forecast table last updated 9 March 2026.
All data is believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
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Research, analysis, and data referenced in this material are developed through the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, which integrates multiple data sources, analytical inputs, and research processes.
These sources may include contributions from non-affiliated third-party providers, including market data vendors, macroeconomic analysts, economists, and other research organizations. Such sources are believed to be reliable but are not independently verified by Keaney Financial Services Corp. and are subject to revision.
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Historical Event Selection & Dataset Disclosure
The data presented in this material is sourced from LSEG Workspace (Refinitiv), the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the World Gold Council, and is analyzed within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System using KFSC Macro Intelligence.
Daily gold, US Dollar Index, and Swiss franc data shown in Charts 1 and 2 are LSEG daily close prices, rebased to 100 at the 27 March 2026 baseline and shown through 29 April 2026.
Weekly speculator positioning data shown in Chart 3 is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report, Disaggregated Futures Only, Managed Money category, on a Tuesday-close basis, January 2018 through 21 April 2026, accessed via LSEG.
Quarterly gold supply, physical demand, and price data shown in Chart 4 are sourced from the World Gold Council via LSEG, covering 2020 Q1 through 2025 Q4.
Forward supply, demand, and central bank purchase forecasts shown in Charts 5 and 6 are LSEG forward forecast figures from the LSEG Gold Supply & Demand Forecast Table, last updated 9 March 2026. The 2025 figures are LSEG's actuals as of that update; 2026 through 2028 are LSEG's forecasts and are subject to revision by LSEG.
This commentary does not include historical event selection, drawdown analysis, or comparison with prior crisis episodes. References to prior cycle peaks in speculator positioning (2019 and 2024) are observational data points within a continuous time series and not selected discrete historical events.
All current-period figures are as of 29 April 2026 and are subject to revision as new data becomes available.
Statistical Interpretation & Non-Predictive Use Disclosure
The statistical measures presented, including rebased index changes, speculator positioning levels, supply and demand quantities, and forward forecast figures, are derived from observational data sourced from LSEG Workspace and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and processed by KFSC Macro Intelligence. They are provided for descriptive and contextual purposes only.
These measures do not represent expected outcomes, do not imply probability of recurrence, and do not constitute forecasts or projections. Forward forecast figures shown in Charts 5 and 6 are LSEG's, not KFSC's, and are subject to revision by LSEG.
References to prior cycle peaks in speculator positioning reflect observational comparisons under prior conditions, not equivalence with the current setup. There is no assurance that current market conditions will follow similar trajectories.
All forward-looking interpretations remain subject to uncertainty and advisor discretion.
Advisor Discretion Statement
All investment decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor.
Models diagnose. Advisors advise. Portfolios implement.
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