Update: Rebuilding the Domestic Rare Earths Supply Chain

Emmelis Keaney MSF, RFC®, Executive VP | May 26, 2026

KFSC MACRO MINUTE · 2–5 MIN READ

KFSC COMMENTARY | MAY 2026 | RARE EARTHS AND MP MATERIALS

RARE EARTHS AND MP MATERIALS

We first introduced our discussion on rare earths back in July of 2025 in a commentary titled The Race for Rare Earth Autonomy where we highlighted the unprecedented and extraordinary deal that the DoD reached with MP Materials (NYSE: MP). We followed that commentary with an update on last October titled The Strategic Imperative of Domestic Resources. For more context, please check out those two previous commentaries.

Recently news came out of a new India–U.S. critical minerals framework, and this is relevant because it shows that rare earths are no longer just a mining story. They are now a national security, technology, and supply-chain story. On May 26, 2026, the U.S. State Department announced that India and the United States signed a framework covering the “mining and processing of critical minerals and rare earths” (U.S. Department of State, 2026).¹

MP Materials is one of the clearest public company examples of this theme and sits at the center of our domestic policy around the critical minerals reshoring quest. The company operates Mountain Pass in California, which remains the only fully operational rare-earth mine in the United States. This gives MP a special role in U.S. plans to rebuild a domestic rare-earth supply chain (Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, 2025).²

Rare earths are important because they are used in magnets, defense systems, electric vehicles, wind turbines, electronics, robotics, and other advanced technologies. In other words, these materials help make small, powerful motors and sensors work. The U.S. wants more reliable supply because China has historically controlled much of the rare-earth processing and magnet supply chain (over 80% of the world’s supply as of 2025).

During his most recent visit to Beijing, President Trump appears to have negotiated with China to ease rare-earth restrictions, but this is far from a permanent solution. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that even if China continues easing restrictions, it is “not a reliable export partner” during geopolitical tension (Baskaran & Schwartz, 2026).³ That is why agreements with India, Australia, Japan, and domestic companies like MP Materials still matter.

And on MP’s recent growth, the company reported full-year 2025 revenue of $224.4 million, up 10% from 2024, mainly because of higher NdPr oxide and metal revenue (MP Materials, 2026).⁴ NdPr means neodymium-praseodymium. These are rare-earth elements used to make high-strength permanent magnets. NdPr oxide is a processed powder-like material. NdPr metal is a further-refined form that can be used to make magnets.

The Department of Defense agreement of last July is especially important. It is not just a handshake or another defense contract. It is a legally binding public-private partnership that gives MP stronger revenue support. The agreement includes a 10-year NdPr price floor and a 10-year offtake agreement for magnets from MP’s planned “10X Facility” in Fort Worth, TX (MP Materials, 2025).⁵ This means the government-backed structure helps protect MP if rare-earth prices fall below a certain threshold and helps ensure demand for the magnets produced at the new facility.

This national security angle has helped drive MP’s stock performance. The company is not trading like a typical mining company anymore. It is also trading like a strategic U.S. supply-chain asset.

However, it would be naïve for investors to assume MP can solve the entire U.S. rare-earth dependency problem on its own. CSIS reported that Mountain Pass produced 8,900 tons of rare-earth compounds and metals in 2025, the highest level in decades, but this covered only about one-third of U.S. consumption (Baskaran & Schwartz, 2026).³ The rest still came mostly from imports, including, you guessed it, China.

For a long-term investor, a position may still be a suitable holding within a broader, diversified portfolio built around economic security, defense, reshoring, electrification, and geopolitical resilience, similar to our KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. On the one hand, the main appeal may be that MP has a rare U.S. asset, government support, and exposure to a supply chain that Washington wants to protect.

But on the other hand, being that MP is now a policy-driven stock implies other risks. If government priorities change, if the 10X Facility is delayed, if rare-earth prices weaken, or if China floods the market, the stock could be volatile. It may be a good long-term thematic holding, but that does not mean it is a low-risk core position. This is an example of the importance of position sizing when managing portfolio risk and allocation.

MP MATERIALS CORP · TOP 10 HOLDERS BY PERCENT OF SHARES OUTSTANDING

Source: London Stock Exchange Group Workspace, MP Materials Corp. firm ownership summary, retrieved May 27, 2026. Holder classifications applied for visual grouping only.

MP Materials is one of the most relevant U.S.-listed rare-earth companies, and the recent India–U.S. minerals deal supports the broader theme that allied countries are trying to reduce dependence on China.

Footnotes

U.S. Department of State. (2026, May 26). Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at the signing of a Critical Minerals Framework.
Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy. (2025). MP Materials deal marks a significant shift in US rare earths policy.
Baskaran, G., & Schwartz, M. (2026, April 27). Rare earth export restrictions one year later. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
MP Materials. (2026). MP Materials reports fourth quarter and full year 2025 results.
MP Materials. (2025, July 10). MP Materials announces transformational public-private partnership with the Department of Defense.

Compliance Disclosures & Risk Warnings

This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or as individualized investment advice.

The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of Keaney Financial Services Corp. as of the date of this commentary. They are subject to change at any time based on market conditions and other factors, and may or may not come to pass.

The KFSC Macro Regime Model and the KFSC Asset Role Registry are proprietary analytical components within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System. Their analysis is based on historical data and a structured evaluation of current conditions. These tools are diagnostic only and do not guarantee future results or protect against loss.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

No statement in this commentary, including conceptual frameworks, analogies, or descriptive language, should be interpreted as:

a promise of profit
a guarantee of value preservation
a safeguard against loss

All investment decisions remain subject to advisor discretion and individual client circumstances.

Framework & Risk Management Disclosure

The KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, including its KFSC Macro Regime Model, KFSC Asset Role Registry, and four diagnostic frameworks (Monetary Integrity Framework, Liquidity Transmission Framework, Strategic Scarcity Framework, Market Structure Framework), provides analytical tools used to support advisor decision-making.

These tools are not automated systems, do not predict future market outcomes, and do not dictate trades or portfolio actions. All portfolio decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor based on their interpretation of available data, client objectives, and prevailing market conditions.

Investing in critical-minerals and rare-earth-exposed equities involves elevated risks, including but not limited to: political and geopolitical instability, changes in United States and foreign government policy regarding critical-minerals access and export controls, single-issuer concentration risk, project-execution risk associated with facility buildouts, commodity price volatility in rare-earth oxides and metals, and supply-chain dependency risk. MP Materials Corp. in particular is a single-issuer equity tied closely to a specific government policy framework, with revenue exposure to a narrow set of rare-earth products and customers. Its share-price behavior may differ materially from broader equity indexes and may be more volatile than diversified equity portfolios.

These factors may result in significant fluctuations in portfolio value and may not be suitable for all investors.

All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Asset allocation, diversification, and risk management strategies are designed to manage risk but do not guarantee profits or protect against losses.

Forward-Looking Statements Disclosure

This commentary contains forward-looking statements and interpretive analysis regarding United States rare-earth supply-chain policy, the May 2026 India and United States critical minerals framework, the Department of Defense public-private partnership with MP Materials Corp., the planned 10X Facility in Fort Worth, Texas, NdPr oxide and metal demand, United States domestic rare-earth consumption coverage, diplomatic engagement with the People's Republic of China regarding rare-earth export restrictions, and the broader reshoring of critical-minerals supply chains. These statements are based on current observations, publicly-reported information, and analytical interpretation of available data.

Historical comparisons referenced in this material are provided for context only. While certain patterns have been observed in prior policy-driven commodity cycles and prior supply-chain reshoring efforts, there is no assurance that current conditions will follow similar trajectories. Outcomes may differ materially due to changes in United States government priorities, foreign policy developments, rare-earth price levels, mining and processing capacity expansion, export-control policy in any country, technology demand, and other unforeseen factors.

Any discussion of MP Materials Corp.'s reported revenue, NdPr pricing dynamics, the 10-year price floor and 10-year offtake provisions of the Department of Defense public-private partnership, the share of United States rare-earth consumption covered by domestic production, or third-party policy commentary reflects interpretive analysis and should not be construed as a definitive explanation of causation or as a prediction of future results.

References to potential causes for stock-price volatility, government-policy outcomes, facility-buildout timelines, or rare-earth market dynamics are provided to illustrate risk considerations. They are not predictions about specific events occurring or not occurring, and they do not represent a definitive view that any specific cause is presently operative.

References to framework outputs, including regime classifications, framework states, and asset role categories, are diagnostic and do not imply certainty about outcomes or their timing.

References to “hold,” “trim,” “buy,” “sell,” or related portfolio terminology in this commentary describe how data informs the firm's diagnostic read and are not specific recommendations to any individual client.

Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Where this commentary references forward-looking expectations or characterizations of future policy and market conditions, those references are interpretive context drawn from publicly-reported third-party sources, including the United States Department of State, MP Materials Corp. corporate communications, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy. The firm's role is to analyze and contextualize externally-sourced information within its internal frameworks. Forecasting future market data is not part of the firm's analytical methodology.

Allocation & Positioning Disclosure

This commentary is not intended as investment advice for the general public. It is specifically prepared for clients invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and may not apply to other investments managed by advisors at Keaney Financial Services Corp. outside of these strategies.

The KFSC Risk Managed Strategies are discretionary, dynamic, and adaptive. Portfolio positioning, allocations, and exposures may change at any time without notice due to evolving market conditions and the advisor's judgment.

These strategies are implemented across seven distinct models on a spectrum from Preservation of Capital through Moderate to Aggressive, each with its own risk profile, volatility expectations, and portfolio construction approach. Suitability of any particular strategy for an individual client is assessed prior to investment, at the time the advisor and client select the strategy that matches the client's individual circumstances.

While the macroeconomic themes and framework outputs described in this commentary are derived from the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System and inform the firm's broader outlook, the specific asset class allocations, position sizes, and underlying holdings may differ materially across strategies, consistent with each strategy's risk mandate.

Methodology & Data Disclosure

The analysis presented references publicly-reported information from the United States Department of State (May 26, 2026 announcement regarding the India and United States critical minerals framework), the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy (2025 publication on MP Materials Corp. and United States rare-earth policy), the Center for Strategic and International Studies (April 27, 2026 publication titled Rare earth export restrictions one year later), and MP Materials Corp. (July 10, 2025 announcement of the Department of Defense public-private partnership and 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results).

Specific figures referenced in this commentary include: MP Materials Corp. full-year 2025 revenue of $224.4 million, reflecting a 10 percent increase from full-year 2024, per the company's fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results announcement; Mountain Pass production of 8,900 tons of rare-earth compounds and metals in 2025, characterized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies as covering approximately one-third of United States rare-earth consumption; Chinese share of the global rare-earth processing and magnet supply chain in excess of 80 percent as of 2025, as referenced in publicly-available industry reporting; the 10-year NdPr price floor and 10-year magnet offtake provisions of the Department of Defense public-private partnership with MP Materials Corp., per the company's July 10, 2025 announcement regarding the planned 10X Facility in Fort Worth, Texas.

All data is believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. References to publicly-traded company financials are drawn from the company's own disclosures and have not been independently verified by Keaney Financial Services Corp.

Research, Data & Technology Disclosure

Research, analysis, and data referenced in this material are developed through the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, which integrates multiple data sources, analytical inputs, and research processes.

These sources may include contributions from non-affiliated third-party providers, including market data vendors, macroeconomic analysts, economists, and other research organizations. Such sources are believed to be reliable but are not independently verified by Keaney Financial Services Corp. and are subject to revision.

As part of the research and analytical process, advanced computational tools and artificial intelligence systems may be utilized to assist in the organization, synthesis, and interpretation of data. These tools are used to enhance efficiency and support analysis within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, but they do not independently generate investment recommendations, do not make investment decisions, and do not replace the advisor's judgment.

All outputs are subject to human review, interpretation, and oversight.

No amount of research, data analysis, or technological support can eliminate the inherent risks of investing or guarantee any specific outcome.

Specific Securities Disclosure

This commentary references MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) by name and ticker as a publicly-traded United States example of a domestic rare-earth producer central to the policy theme discussed. The reference to MP Materials Corp. is provided for thematic, contextual, and educational purposes and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold MP Materials Corp. shares or any other security.

Any security held in client portfolios is selected on the basis of advisor due diligence and the risk mandate of the specific KFSC Risk Managed Strategy within which the client is invested, not on the basis of the observations made in this commentary.

Past performance of MP Materials Corp. or of rare-earth producers generally is not indicative of future results. Investing in single-name equities, particularly those concentrated in commodity production and tied to specific government policy frameworks, involves additional concentration risk relative to broadly diversified portfolios. Single-name equity positions may experience price volatility that differs materially from broad equity indexes.

Clients should consult with their advisor regarding whether any specific security, including MP Materials Corp., is appropriate for their individual circumstances and within the risk mandate of their selected strategy.

Historical Event Selection & Dataset Disclosure

The information referenced in this material is drawn from publicly-available sources including the United States Department of State, MP Materials Corp. press releases and financial disclosures, Center for Strategic and International Studies research publications, and Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy research publications, each cited in the Footnotes section of this commentary.

References to specific historical events (the July 2025 Department of Defense public-private partnership with MP Materials Corp., the May 26, 2026 India and United States critical minerals framework announcement, diplomatic engagement with the People's Republic of China regarding rare-earth export restrictions, and the cited 2025 Mountain Pass production of 8,900 tons) are observational data points drawn from the cited sources and are not selected discrete historical events used for backtesting or trend extrapolation.

References to two prior KFSC commentaries on the rare-earth theme (The Race for Rare Earth Autonomy, July 2025; The Strategic Imperative of Domestic Resources, October 2025) are provided for continuity of context. The substance of those prior commentaries is not reproduced in this material.

All current-period figures are as of the dates specified in the original source publications and are subject to revision as new information becomes available.

Statistical Interpretation & Non-Predictive Use Disclosure

The figures presented in this commentary, including MP Materials Corp. annual revenue and year-over-year revenue growth, Mountain Pass annual production output, the share of United States rare-earth consumption covered by domestic production, the Chinese share of the global rare-earth processing and magnet supply chain, and the contractual duration of the Department of Defense price floor and offtake provisions, are drawn from publicly-reported company, government, and research-institution sources. They are provided for descriptive and contextual purposes only.

These measures do not represent expected outcomes, do not imply probability of recurrence, and do not constitute forecasts or projections.

References to prior policy actions, prior diplomatic engagements, and prior supply-chain developments reflect observational comparisons under prior conditions and do not imply equivalence with the current setup. There is no assurance that current conditions in United States rare-earth policy, MP Materials Corp. operational execution, or global rare-earth supply-chain dynamics will follow similar trajectories.

All forward-looking interpretations remain subject to uncertainty and advisor discretion.

Advisor Discretion Statement

All investment decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor.

Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.

Business Entity Disclosure

Keaney Financial Services Corp. provides insurance and financial services. Ameritas Investment Company, LLC (AIC), Member FINRA / SIPC, provides securities and investments. Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC (AAS) provides investment advisory services.

AIC and AAS are not affiliated with Keaney Financial Services Corp.

Ernesto Keaney is an Investment Adviser Representative of Keaney Financial Services Corp., available through the Ameritas Wealth Platform.

Models Diagnose · Advisors Decide· Portfolios Implement

KFSC Commentary | May 2026 | Rare Earths and MP Materials
Keaney Financial Services Corp