Gold's Pullback back and Today's Ceasefire News
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May 28, 2026
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May 28, 2026
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May 28, 2026
■ KFSC MACRO INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARY · 9-13 MIN READ
GOLD'S PULLBACK AND TODAY'S CEASEFIRE NEWS
KFSC COMMENTARY · MAY 2026 · GOLD
A diagnostic read on today's reporting and the data underneath the price.
On the morning of May 28th, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States and Iran have reached an outline agreement to extend their ceasefire, pending presidential signoff.[1] The agreement, as reported, includes a sixty-day memorandum of understanding to extend the truce and to launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. The conflict, which Reuters describes as a three-month-old war, began on February 28, 2026, and has, by Reuters' reporting, cost thousands of lives.[1]
We believe clients invested in KFSC Risk Managed Strategies need more than headlines. Gold's price has moved lower during the conflict, and some central banks have sold gold over this period. Our goal is to explain these developments in plain English and share our view of what the data may signal, what we do not believe it proves, and why it should be considered through the lens of disciplined risk management and a long-term perspective.
Five charts and five plain-language explanations follow. Nothing in this note is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Rather, it is an educational review of what the data shows, how we interpret it, and where the limits of that interpretation begin.
■ CHART 1 · PRICE
1. Why gold has eased
GOLD PRICE, YEAR-TO-DATE 2026
Source: London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Workspace, gold spot price XAU= (BID). Daily readings, with the final point reflecting the LSEG Workspace intraday reading on May 28 at 3:21 p.m. Eastern time. Conflict timeline annotations sourced from Reuters reporting via LSEG.[1][2]
IN PLAIN ENGLISH
Look at the chart. Gold's high point this year was on January 28, when the daily closing price reached $5,399 per ounce. That was five weeks before the conflict began. As of 3:21 p.m. Eastern time on May 28, gold trades at $4,501. The decline from the January 28 peak is roughly 17 percent.[2]
This sequence matters. The most common assumption about gold is that it goes up during a war and down during peace. What actually happened this year is more interesting. Gold rose sharply in January, before the war began. It then drifted lower while the war was being fought. It sits well below its January peak today, the day a ceasefire outline was reported.
In our reading of the data, the gold market priced in a great deal of fear in the weeks leading up to the conflict. Once the conflict was actually underway, much of that fear was already in the price. As reports through the spring suggested the conflict might end with negotiations rather than escalate further, the market gave back some of what it had paid for the worst-case scenario. Today's reported ceasefire is the latest data point in that sequence.
Why this matters. Gold's price moves are noisy in the short run. A pullback after a sharp rise is not, by itself, a signal that the long-run case for gold has changed. It also does not mean the long-run case has been confirmed. We watch the structural data underneath the price for that. Four charts follow that look at that structural data.
■ CHART 2 · CENTRAL BANK ACTIVITY
2. Why some countries sold gold during the conflict
TOP CENTRAL BANK BUYERS AND SELLERS, APRIL 2026
Source: International Monetary Fund and central bank reporting, compiled by London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Metals Research, Precious Metals Monthly publication, May 28, 2026 edition.[3]
IN PLAIN ENGLISH
A central bank is the savings account for an entire country. It holds reserves on the country's behalf, manages the country's exchange rate, and reports to the top of the government. When a central bank decides to buy or sell gold, that decision has been reviewed by committees and signed off at the highest level. It is not a reaction to a news cycle.
Here is what the world's central banks did in April. Three of them bought a meaningful amount of gold. Poland bought 20 tonnes. Kazakhstan bought 6 tonnes. The Czech Republic bought 2 tonnes. Three sold. Türkiye sold 60 tonnes in a single month. Malta and Nigeria each sold a small fraction of a tonne. When every reporting central bank in the world is added together, the world's central banks bought 30 tonnes more gold than they sold in April.[3]
Why would Türkiye sell sixty tonnes of gold while a war is underway in its region? Think about what a country actually needs in a crisis. It needs to keep paying for the goods it imports. It needs to defend its own currency on world markets. It may need to spend on its own defense. It may need to make payments on debt that is denominated in US dollars. For all of these, a country needs one specific thing: US dollars.
Gold is one of the most liquid reserve assets a country owns. It can be sold quickly, and the proceeds come back in US dollars. So when a country is under acute pressure, gold can be one of the assets that gets sold to raise the dollars it needs.
The London Stock Exchange Group's own analysts wrote, in the same report this chart is sourced from, that some of the selling “suggests some central banks may be seeking additional USD liquidity amid ongoing economic pressures.”[3] That is their interpretation, not ours. Türkiye, the largest seller, has had its own currency and inflation pressures for a number of years and sits geographically next to the conflict zone. Azerbaijan's State Oil Fund (referred to as SOFAZ) sold 22 tonnes of gold during the first three months of this year, also per the same report.[3]
Why this matters. During prior periods of acute financial stress, some countries have, historically, been net sellers of reserve assets, including gold, to raise dollar liquidity. Past patterns are not a reliable predictor of future patterns. What we observe today is that the list of central banks buying gold has narrowed compared with prior periods, and that the list of sellers includes countries that were buyers a year ago. [3] That composition shift is part of what we watch.
■ CHART 3 · LONG-ARC PATTERN
3. The longer arc: central banks have, on net, been buyers every year since 2010
CENTRAL BANK NET OFFICIAL SECTOR PURCHASES OF GOLD, 2010 TO 2028
Source: World Gold Council historical figures for 2010 through 2024; London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Metals Research for 2025 actual and 2026 to 2028 forecast figures.[4]Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. The 2026 to 2028 figures shown are LSEG's, not KFSC's, and are subject to revision by LSEG.
IN PLAIN ENGLISH
Step back from one month. The chart above shows what the world's central banks have done with gold, on net, each year since 2010. The pattern is consistent. Every year since 2010, the world's central banks have been net buyers of gold.[4] Beginning in 2022, the pace of buying roughly doubled and has stayed at that elevated level since.
Why 2022? In February of that year, Western governments froze approximately three hundred billion US dollars of Russian central bank reserves. The freeze made every other central bank aware that holding reserves in another country's currency carried a risk that could not be entirely managed. Gold cannot be frozen by a foreign government. Net official sector buying of gold accelerated and has stayed elevated since.[4]
London Stock Exchange Group's forecast figures, which we include here because they are published by a major data provider, project net central bank buying of 650, 690, and 750 tonnes in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively.[4] Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Those are LSEG's figures. They are subject to revision by LSEG and they are not the firm's projection.
Why this matters. The longer-arc story for gold as a reserve asset has not been driven by the price action of any single month. It has been driven by central banks, taken as a group, treating gold as a reserve asset they want to hold. The narrowing of the buyer base, and the new appearance of some sellers, is a recent shift that we are watching. It has not, as of the most recent reporting, reversed the multi-year pattern of net buying.[4]
■ CHART 4 · POSITIONING
4. Hedge funds have not piled into gold
HEDGE FUND POSITIONING IN GOLD FUTURES, JANUARY 2018 TO MAY 19, 2026
Source: United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, weekly Commitments of Traders report (Disaggregated Futures Only, Managed Money category), sourced via London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Workspace.[5]
IN PLAIN ENGLISH
Every Tuesday, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes a snapshot of how hedge funds and other large speculators are positioned in the gold futures market. The line in the chart above shows the net number of contracts the speculative crowd has been holding long, week by week.
The reading in the most recent week was 294 thousand contracts.[5] The peak in the 2019 cycle was 908 thousand. The peak in the 2024 cycle was 793 thousand.[5] Today's positioning sits well below both of those prior peaks, even though the gold price has run higher than it ever has.
Why this matters. One of the more common ways prior gold rallies have ended is the speculative crowd piling in at the top and then unwinding when the trade no longer worked. This time, the speculative crowd has not piled in. In our reading of the data, the bid for gold over the last two years has come from a different group of buyers (central banks, physical investors) rather than from short-term traders chasing the price.
■ CHART 5 · FUND FLOWS
5. Where money flowed into and out of gold funds
GLOBAL GOLD EXCHANGE-TRADED PRODUCT NET FLOWS BY MONTH, FEBRUARY 2025 TO APRIL 2026
Source: World Gold Council, monthly aggregated net flows across the global physically-backed gold exchange-traded product universe, accessed via London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Workspace.[6]
IN PLAIN ENGLISH
Gold exchange-traded products (sometimes called gold ETFs) are funds that hold physical gold and trade like a stock. When investors put money into one of these funds, the fund buys more physical gold to back the new shares. When investors pull money out, the fund sells physical gold. Adding up all these flows across all the funds in the world, month by month, gives a clean picture of whether investor money is moving into or out of gold.
Out of the last fifteen months, fourteen were inflow months. The largest single month was September 2025 with a 144 tonne inflow.[6] March 2026 was the one outflow month, with 85 tonnes leaving these funds. That coincided with the gold pullback we discussed in the first chart.[6] April 2026 was back to inflows, at 70 tonnes.
Why this matters. The March outflow was real, and it helps explain why the gold price came off so quickly in that month. What stands out in our reading, however, is that the outflow was a single month inside a fifteen-month pattern of inflows. April flows were back to positive. We are watching whether the May data, when it is published, shows another month of inflows or another month of outflows.
■ SYNTHESIS
What we read from all of this
In our reading, gold's pullback this year is consistent with a normal post-peak consolidation in an asset that absorbed a great deal of expected risk in late January, watched that risk partially materialize, and is now seeing some of that priced-in risk come back out. The structural inputs the firm watches (the long-arc central bank buying record, the absence of speculative excess, the steady inflow pattern into gold-backed funds) have not changed in a way that, in our reading, reverses the diagnostic.
The narrowing of the central bank buyer base, and the appearance of new sellers, is the most meaningful shift in the data this month. We are watching it. It does not, on its own, reverse a multi-year structural pattern. It is one observation inside an ongoing process.
Gold's role within some of our KFSC Risk Managed Strategies is as a long-run holder of monetary integrity, classified accordingly within our KFSC Asset Role Registry. Position decisions sit with the advisor and are governed by each strategy's risk mandate. None of the data above triggers automatic action of any kind. If a question raised by this reading applies to your situation, we would rather talk it through with you in person or by phone than have you guess at it.
Footnotes
Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Forecast figures referenced in this commentary, including the 2026 to 2028 central bank net purchase projections, are sourced to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Metals Research and are LSEG's, not KFSC's. Our role is to analyze and contextualize externally sourced information. Forecasting future market data is not part of the firm's analytical methodology.
REFERENCES IN ORDER OF APPEARANCE
Compliance Disclosures and Risk Warnings
This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or as individualized investment advice.
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of Keaney Financial Services Corp. as of the date of this commentary. They are subject to change at any time based on market conditions and other factors, and may or may not come to pass.
The KFSC Macro Regime Model and the KFSC Asset Role Registry are proprietary analytical components within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System. Their analysis is based on historical data and a structured evaluation of current conditions. These tools are diagnostic only and do not guarantee future results or protect against loss.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
No statement in this commentary, including conceptual frameworks, analogies, or descriptive language, should be interpreted as:
All investment decisions remain subject to advisor discretion and individual client circumstances.
Framework and Risk Management Disclosure
The KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, including its KFSC Macro Regime Model, KFSC Asset Role Registry, and four diagnostic frameworks (the Monetary Integrity Framework, the Liquidity Transmission Framework, the Strategic Scarcity Framework, and the Market Structure Framework), provides analytical tools used to support advisor decision-making.
These tools are not automated systems, do not predict future market outcomes, and do not dictate trades or portfolio actions. All portfolio decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor based on their interpretation of available data, client objectives, and prevailing market conditions.
Investing in commodities, including precious metals such as gold, involves elevated risks, including but not limited to: political and geopolitical instability, economic and monetary system changes, currency fluctuations, market liquidity conditions, and rapid price volatility. Gold is sensitive to global central bank reserve management decisions, the level of real interest rates, the level and direction of the US dollar, and geopolitical developments that can influence investor demand for safe-haven assets.
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Asset allocation, diversification, and risk management strategies are designed to manage risk but do not guarantee profits or protect against losses.
Forward-Looking Statements Disclosure
This commentary contains forward-looking statements and interpretive analysis regarding gold price behavior, central bank reserve management actions, geopolitical conflict developments, and macroeconomic conditions. These statements are based on current observations, publicly-reported information, and analytical interpretation of available data.
Historical comparisons referenced in this material are provided for context only. While certain patterns have been observed during prior periods of central bank reserve management activity and prior periods of geopolitical or financial stress, there is no assurance that current conditions will follow similar trajectories. Outcomes may differ materially due to changes in monetary policy, geopolitical developments, market structure, liquidity conditions, currency dynamics, and other unforeseen factors.
Any discussion of current market behavior, including references to gold's pullback from its January 2026 peak, the composition of central bank buyers and sellers, hedge fund positioning patterns, or exchange-traded product flow dynamics, reflects interpretive analysis and should not be construed as a definitive explanation of causation or as a prediction of future results.
References to potential causes for market dynamics, price volatility, or policy outcomes are provided to illustrate risk considerations. They are not predictions about specific events occurring or not occurring.
References to framework outputs, including regime classifications, framework states, and asset role categories, are diagnostic and do not imply certainty about outcomes or their timing.
References to “hold,” “trim,” “buy,” “sell,” or related portfolio terminology in this commentary describe how data informs the firm's diagnostic read and are not specific recommendations to any individual client.
Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Where this commentary references forward-looking expectations, those references are interpretive context drawn from publicly-reported third-party sources, specifically London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Metals Research and Reuters news reporting accessed via LSEG. The firm's role is to analyze and contextualize externally sourced information within its internal frameworks. Forecasting future market data is not part of the firm's analytical methodology.
Allocation and Positioning Disclosure
This commentary is not intended as investment advice for the general public. It is specifically prepared for clients invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and may not apply to other investments managed by advisors at Keaney Financial Services Corp. outside of these strategies.
The KFSC Risk Managed Strategies are discretionary, dynamic, and adaptive. Portfolio positioning, allocations, and exposures may change at any time without notice due to evolving market conditions and the advisor's judgment.
These strategies are implemented across six distinct mandates on a spectrum from Preservation of Capital through Aggressive Growth (Preservation of Capital, Conservative, Conservative Growth, Moderate, Moderate Growth, and Aggressive Growth), each with its own risk profile, volatility expectations, and portfolio construction approach. Suitability of any particular strategy for an individual client is assessed prior to investment, at the time the advisor and client select the strategy that matches the client's individual circumstances.
While the macroeconomic themes and framework outputs described in this commentary are derived from the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System and inform the firm's broader outlook, the specific asset class allocations, position sizes, and underlying holdings may differ materially across strategies, consistent with each strategy's risk mandate.
Methodology and Data Disclosure
The analysis presented references publicly-reported information from the following sources: London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Workspace for daily gold spot prices and the underlying market data integration layer; LSEG Metals Research for the Precious Metals Monthly publication dated May 28, 2026, and the Gold Forward Supply and Demand Forecast Table last updated April 30, 2026; Reuters news reporting accessed via LSEG, specifically the May 28, 2026 report on the reported outline ceasefire agreement; the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report (Disaggregated Futures Only, Managed Money category); the World Gold Council, for historical central bank net official sector purchase figures and monthly exchange-traded product flow data; the International Monetary Fund and central bank reporting, as compiled and published by LSEG Metals Research.
Specific figures referenced in this commentary include: the January 28, 2026 gold daily closing price of $5,399 per ounce; the May 28, 2026 intraday gold reading of $4,501 per ounce as of 3:21 p.m. Eastern time; the resulting peak-to-current decline of approximately 17 percent; April 2026 central bank buyer and seller figures (Poland +20.1 tonnes, Kazakhstan +6.0 tonnes, Czech Republic +1.7 tonnes, Türkiye -60.0 tonnes, Malta -0.1 tonnes, Nigeria -0.1 tonnes, global net of +30 tonnes); the Q1 2026 net central bank purchase figure of 55 tonnes; the most recent CFTC managed money net long reading of 294 thousand contracts on May 19, 2026; the 2019 cycle peak of 908 thousand contracts and the 2024 cycle peak of 793 thousand contracts; monthly global ETP net flow figures from February 2025 through April 2026, including the September 2025 inflow of 144 tonnes, the March 2026 outflow of 85 tonnes, and the April 2026 inflow of 70 tonnes; and annual central bank net purchase figures from 2010 through 2025 with LSEG forecast figures for 2026 through 2028 of 650, 690, and 750 tonnes.
All data is believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
Research, Data, and Technology Disclosure
Research, analysis, and data referenced in this material are developed through the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, which integrates multiple data sources, analytical inputs, and research processes.
These sources may include contributions from non-affiliated third-party providers, including market data vendors, macroeconomic analysts, economists, and other research organizations. Such sources are believed to be reliable but are not independently verified by Keaney Financial Services Corp. and are subject to revision.
As part of the research and analytical process, advanced computational tools and artificial intelligence systems may be utilized to assist in the organization, synthesis, and interpretation of data. These tools are used to enhance efficiency and support analysis within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, but they do not independently generate investment recommendations, do not make investment decisions, and do not replace the advisor's judgment.
All outputs are subject to human review, interpretation, and oversight.
No amount of research, data analysis, or technological support can eliminate the inherent risks of investing or guarantee any specific outcome.
Specific Securities Disclosure
This commentary does not name, recommend, or specifically reference any individual security, exchange-traded product, trust, or financial instrument. Any security held in client portfolios is selected on the basis of advisor due diligence and the risk mandate of the specific KFSC Risk Managed Strategies within which the client is invested, not on the basis of the analytical observations made in this commentary. Reference to general categories of exposure (such as physically-backed gold exchange-traded products) is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security.
Historical Event Selection and Dataset Disclosure
The information referenced in this material is drawn from publicly-available sources including Reuters news reporting (accessed via London Stock Exchange Group), London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Metals Research publications, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the World Gold Council, the International Monetary Fund, and central bank reporting, each cited in the Footnotes section of this commentary.
References to specific historical events (the February 28, 2026 reported start of the conflict between the United States and Iran; the early April 2026 first reported ceasefire; the May 28, 2026 reported outline ceasefire agreement; the February 2022 freeze of Russian central bank reserves) are observational data points drawn from the cited sources, not selected discrete historical events used for backtesting or trend extrapolation. Past patterns are not a reliable predictor of future patterns.
All current-period figures are as of the dates specified in the original source publications and are subject to revision as new information becomes available.
References to prior KFSC commentaries (the April 29, 2026 commentary on gold market structure) are provided for continuity of context. The substance of those prior commentaries is not reproduced in this material.
Statistical Interpretation and Non-Predictive Use Disclosure
The figures presented in this commentary, including gold price levels and percentage changes, central bank purchase and sale quantities, hedge fund positioning levels, and exchange-traded product flow figures, are drawn from publicly-reported government, market, and research-institution sources. They are provided for descriptive and contextual purposes only.
These measures do not represent expected outcomes, do not imply probability of recurrence, and do not constitute forecasts or projections.
References to prior cycle peaks in hedge fund positioning (the 2019 peak of 908 thousand contracts; the 2024 peak of 793 thousand contracts) reflect observational comparisons under prior conditions, not equivalence with the current setup. There is no assurance that current conditions in the gold market will follow similar trajectories.
All forward-looking interpretations remain subject to uncertainty and advisor discretion.
Advisor Discretion Statement
All investment decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor.
Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
Business Entity Disclosure
Keaney Financial Services Corp. provides insurance and financial services. Ameritas Investment Company, LLC (AIC), Member FINRA / SIPC, provides securities and investments. Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC (AAS) provides investment advisory services.
AIC and AAS are not affiliated with Keaney Financial Services Corp.
Ernesto Keaney is an Investment Adviser Representative of Keaney Financial Services Corp., available through the Ameritas Wealth Platform.
Models Diagnose. · Advisors Decide. · Portfolios Implement.
KFSC COMMENTARY · MAY 2026 · GOLD · KEANEY FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP