Created, moved, or earned. August 2026
|
August 25, 2026
|
August 25, 2026
|
August 25, 2026
▪KFSC MARKET DATA SERIES · AUGUST 2026 · NUMBER TWO
What changed, and what only looks like it changed
Market fundamentals, liquidity and credit · data to the August 19, 2026 close
ABOUT 38 MINUTES TO READ · the board and the paragraph above it on their own, about 12 · sources and disclosures, a further 24
WHAT THIS IS, AND HOW TO USE IT
This is a monthly series on market data. Each month we publish the same short set of measures covering three things: market fundamentals, liquidity and credit. The same measures, the same way, every month, so you can see what actually changed rather than whatever happened to be interesting.
This written piece is the short read. It gives you the readings, what moved, and what each measure is for. The video goes deeper. Each month one chapter gets taken apart properly on video, explained in simple terms, with the everyday examples that do not fit on a page. This month the video chapter is the cost of money.
What follows describes what we measure and why we measure it. Every exhibit says what the measure is for and what it cannot tell you, because a number on its own is the part that is easiest to misread.
Reading these markets is our work, not yours. Nothing here asks you to do anything at all. It is a window into our research process, prepared for clients and prospective clients invested in or considering the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. It is not a model for you to run, not a signal to act on, and not advice about your account. Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
WHAT WE LEARNED LAST MONTH
If you read the July issue, skip this box. If you did not, it is the ninety seconds you need.
We asked one question and spent the whole issue on it: who actually puts up the cash that holds this market and this government’s borrowing up. Not who is talking about it. Who is writing the check. There are only three possible answers, because there are only three places a dollar can come from.
Created means the dollar did not exist the day before. Somebody made it, and the pool of money got bigger. Moved means the dollar already existed and changed hands or changed address; the pool did not grow. Earned means somebody had to be paid to part with a dollar they already had. It was not made and it was not shuffled. It was competed for.
Then we followed it. The created stretch ran from February 2020 to the March 2022 peak, when the money supply grew 40.6% from $15.49 trillion to $21.79 trillion. [6] That stretch is finished. The moved stretch ran from late 2022 into 2025, when a facility holding $2.55 trillion of cash parked overnight at the Federal Reserve on December 30, 2022 was drawn down to $0.32 billion by August 19, 2026. [8] What is left is the earned dollar, which has to be won from a saver and won again every time the debt rolls.
That framework does not change month to month, and it is not going to. What changes is the readings.
Which is why this issue asks a different question, and it is the question that makes a monthly series worth reading. Four weeks have passed. Some numbers moved. Which of those moves actually told us something, and which were just a series doing what it normally does?
Beside each reading below is how much that particular measure typically moves in an ordinary month, taken from its own recorded history. A measure that moved less than it usually moves has told you very little, whichever direction it went. A measure that moved more than usual is worth a paragraph. That single column is the difference between reporting a month and interpreting one, and it is there so you can judge for yourself rather than take our word for it.
The board
Six measures, four weeks apart, with the size of a normal month beside them.
Market data to the August 19, 2026 close. July readings as published July 24, 2026, at the July 23 close. Shiller PE and money growth are monthly series, so their month-over-month compares the latest monthly observation with the prior one. [1][2][3][4][5][6]
July 23 against August 19
Every move is shown against what an ordinary month looks like in that same series.
THE WHOLE MONTH, IN ONE PARAGRAPH
Two things got more expensive this month, and both moved further than an ordinary month for their own series. At the August 19, 2026 close, a hundred thousand dollars put into the market buys about $2,395 a year of company profits, where the long-run normal price would have bought about $4,695. [1] Three of the six barely moved. One of those is a good reading, and we are not going to bury it. The average stock is running 2.3 points ahead of the index that weights the giant companies most heavily, so this year you did not need to own the giants to keep pace. [4] Money growth is ordinary rather than alarming, at the 34th percentile of its own history since 1960, [6] and borrowing got very slightly cheaper. [5] Underneath all of it, the spare cash that used to sit unused in the financial system is essentially gone. [8] The money holding prices up now has to be won from savers who have a real alternative. None of that says the market falls. It says what you are paying, and where the money is coming from. The rest of this page shows you each piece, and what it costs in dollars.
The board
Six measures at the August 19, 2026 close. Where each sits in its own history, and where it sat on July 23, 2026.
The bar runs the full recorded range of that measure, low on the left, high on the right. The pale line is the middle of its own history. The gold line is where it stood on July 23. The large number is where it stands now.
WHAT THE COLOURS MEAN
These describe how this month compares with last month, and nothing more. They are not a forecast, not a rating of any investment, and not advice. Whether any of it matters for your account depends on what you own, how long you are holding it and the risk option you selected, which is a conversation for you and your advisor.
What you are paying for company earnings ▼ WORSE THAN LAST MONTH
Put $100,000 into the S&P 500 today and you are buying about $2,395 a year of company profits. At the half-century normal price for this market, measured since 1970, that same $100,000 would buy about $4,695. On July 23, 2026 it bought about $2,462, so over these four weeks you get roughly $67 a year less for the same money. [1]
Our working: Shiller PE 41.76 at August 1, against a median of 21.29 across the half century since January 1970. It moved 1.14 where an ordinary month on that same half-century basis is 0.40, which is a larger move than 87% of those months. Today's reading sits at the 97.5th percentile of the period. [1] The $2,395 is $100,000 divided by 41.76; the $4,695 is $100,000 divided by 21.29; the $2,462 is $100,000 divided by 40.62. All three statistics are stated on the same window. Arithmetic by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [1].
What the market is worth against what the country produces ▼ WORSE THAN LAST MONTH
For every $1 the American economy produces in a year, the stock market is valued at $2.41. Over the long run that figure has averaged about $0.81. On July 23, 2026 it was $2.32. [2]
Our working: Total market value to GDP 241% at August 18, against a series median of 81%. It moved 9 points where an ordinary month is 2. [2] The $2.41 and $0.81 are the ratio expressed per dollar of output rather than as a percentage. Arithmetic by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [2].
Whether you needed the giant companies to keep up ▲ BETTER THAN LAST MONTH
So far in 2026, measured from January 1 to the August 19 close, the average stock is running 2.3 points ahead of the index that weights the biggest companies most heavily. In practice that means you did not need to own the handful of giants to keep pace. For most of the past decade you did: the giants were typically 2.3 points ahead, not behind. [4]
Our working: Equal weight total return minus cap weight total return, +2.3 points year to date at August 19, against +1.7 points on July 23. [4] The 2.3 points is equal weight total return minus cap weight total return, year to date. Computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [4].
What company officers are doing with their own money … WAITING ON NEW DATA
Officers and directors must report trades in their own company’s shares. At the July 23, 2026 issue there were 22 purchases for every 100 sales. Nothing has been published since, so there is nothing to report this month and we are not going to estimate it. [3]
Our working: Insider buy/sell ratio 0.22 as at the July issue, against a series median of 0.34. Many sales are scheduled months ahead under a written plan, so the count measures transactions, not motives. [3] The 22 per 100 is the ratio 0.22 expressed as a count per hundred sales. Arithmetic by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [3].
What it costs to borrow, and what a lender is paid ◆ MIXED, OR NO CHANGE
$100,000 lent to the US government for ten years pays about $4,653 a year, and that amount is fixed for the whole ten years. On July 23, 2026 the same loan would have paid $4,703, so about $50 a year less now. The rate is fixed, but the value of the note is not: sell it before it matures and it can be worth less than you paid. The same shift makes borrowing very slightly cheaper, for a mortgage or for a company building something. [5]
Our working: US 10-year Treasury 4.653% at August 19, against 4.703% on July 23. Six-decade median 5.73%. It moved 0.05 points where an ordinary month is 0.18, a smaller move than 85% of its own months. [5] The $4,653 is $100,000 at 4.653%; the $4,703 is $100,000 at 4.703%. Arithmetic by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [5].
How much money there is in the economy ◆ MIXED, OR NO CHANGE
At the June 2026 reading, the newest one published, there is about 5.5% more money circulating than there was in June 2025. In the July issue we showed you the May reading of 5.6%, so the pace eased by about a twentieth of a point. This series is monthly and runs about seven weeks behind our market cutoff, so June is the latest anyone has. Across the whole recorded series that figure has averaged about 6.6% a year. [6]
Our working: M2 money stock, year over year, +5.53% at the June 2026 observation, against +5.58% at the May 2026 observation shown in the July issue. It moved 0.05 points where an ordinary month for this series is 0.28, so the change is smaller than a normal month and tells you very little on its own. The reading sits at the 34th percentile of this series since 1960, below the +6.59% median. [6] Computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [6].
The colour rates one thing only: how this month’s reading compares with last month’s. That is arithmetic. It is not a view on what happens next, which we do not forecast, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. A red month is not a warning and a green month is not an all clear.
This chart shows third-party market data. It is NOT the performance of the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and NOT the return of any account, which would be reduced by fees, transaction costs and taxes. Educational and illustrative only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Two of the six moved by more than an ordinary month, and both point the same way: the market got more expensive. Three barely moved at all, and one of those three, participation, is the month’s better reading and is set out below under what held. One measure is not yet available to us and is marked pending rather than estimated, because a number we have not seen is not a number we will print.
People typically read a month of movement as the start of a trend, but that may not be the case. Four weeks is one observation, and every measure on this board has moved further than this and come back inside the same year.
Sources as cited per row. The normal-month figure is the median absolute one-month change across each series’ own full recorded history, computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp from the exports listed in the Sources. Diagnostic reading, not a recommendation. History for context, not a prediction.
What each measure is for
Why we watch it, and what it cannot tell us. The same six, every month.
A reading with no purpose attached is just a number, and a number with no stated limit invites somebody to act on it. So here is what each one is doing on the board.
Notice how much of that last column says the same thing: none of these measures tells us what happens next. That is not a hedge, it is what a diagnostic is. We use them to describe conditions, and the conditions inform how our advisors size positions inside the risk option a client already selected.
What moved
Three measures did more than an ordinary month. Two of them describe a more expensive market. One of them is a holding that rose.
Gold. Gold rose 11.7% in four weeks, from $4,047.15 at the July 23 close to $4,521.09 at the August 19 close. [5] Gold is held inside the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. A holding that rises is a return received, not a risk carried, and we are saying that first rather than folding it into a list of things that moved. What any account actually returned depends on the risk option selected, on how much of it was held and on fees, transaction costs and taxes, and is not shown here. It was also a large move by this series’ own history. A normal month in gold, measured across daily closes back to March 1968, is 2.8%. This month was larger than 95% of every one-month window in that history. Year to date gold is up 4.8% from $4,314.12 at the December 31, 2025 close, having been down 6.2% on the same measure five weeks earlier.
Price. The Shiller PE reads 41.76 at August 2026 against 40.62 at July 2026. [1] A normal month in that series moves 0.32, so a move of 1.14 is unusually large for a measure built to move slowly. It sits above 97.5% of monthly observations since 1970, against a median of 21.29.
Market against economy. The total value of listed US companies reads 241% of a year of output at August 18, 2026, against 232% at July 23. [2] That is a nine point move where two points is ordinary, and it sits above 99.9% of observations since 1970.
Now the argument against reading much into any of it. Three measures moving further than usual in one month is three observations, not a trend, and a valuation measure moving up is a description of price rather than a schedule of events. These dials have read high for much of the past decade while company earnings kept growing underneath them. Gold’s year-to-date figure changed sign in five weeks without anything about gold changing except the date we stopped counting, which is the clearest argument available for treating any single window with suspicion. People typically read a cluster of moves as confirmation, but that may not be the case. History for context, not a prediction.
What held
The measures that did less than an ordinary month. Their levels still matter; their moves do not.
The cost of money barely moved. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.653% on August 19 against 4.703% on July 23, a fall of five hundredths of a point where eighteen hundredths is an ordinary month. [5] It sits near the 40th percentile of daily closes since 1968, below the six-decade median of 5.73%, and above every daily close of the 2010s, whose highest was 3.988%. Both of those readings are true at once, which is why it is this month’s video chapter.
Money growth is normal. M2 grew 5.53% over the year to the June 2026 observation, the newest published, the 34th percentile of readings since 1960 and below the long-run median of 6.59%. [6] If somebody asks whether money is being created at an alarming rate right now, the honest answer from this series is no.
Participation is broad. The equal-weighted S&P 500 returned 15.7% year to date against 13.4% for the cap-weighted version, both from the December 31, 2025 close, so the average company is ahead by 2.3 points. [4] That gap was 1.7 points on July 23, and a half-point move is smaller than three quarters of one-month windows. Measured on daily data back to 1988, 2026 ranks seventh of the twenty-three years since 2004 at this point in the calendar.
Broad participation is a genuinely good reading, and we are not going to bury it. Any cap-weighted index fund still carries the concentration a decade built: over the ten years to August 19 the cap-weighted index returned 316.8% against 162.4% for the equal-weighted version. [4] That difference was a return received by anyone who owned the index, not a risk they carried. One broad year does not change the shape ten years built. Index returns, before fees, costs and taxes.
Liquidity and credit: where the funding stands
Created, moved, or earned. Two of the three have already run their course.
Levels as of the most recent observation of each series. Series carry different frequencies and publication lags, and those dates are stated per row. [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][16]
Most of this story is settled history and does not change month to month, so we will not retell it at length. What is worth updating each month is where the levels stand now.
The funding picture, this month
Where the money to hold all of this up is actually coming from.
Read these the same way as the board above, with one difference. These series trend upward by construction, so a middle-of-history line would be true almost always and would tell you nothing. Each bar therefore runs from zero to that series’ own highest recorded level, which is named at the right-hand end. Six of the nine are quarterly or lagged and have published nothing since the July issue; those are marked, not estimated.
WHAT THE COLOURS MEAN
These describe how this month compares with last month, and nothing more. They are not a forecast, not a rating of any investment, and not advice. Whether any of it matters for your account depends on what you own, how long you are holding it and the risk option you selected, which is a conversation for you and your advisor.
What the government owes … WAITING ON NEW DATA
$39.07 trillion at the first quarter of 2026, the largest figure this series has recorded in plain dollars. That is a nominal-dollar reading, not adjusted for inflation and not measured against the size of the economy, and a series stated in dollars sets a new top in most years. The second-quarter figure has not been published yet, so this is the same number we showed you in July. [12]
Our working: Total public debt outstanding, $39.07T at Q1 2026. Quarterly series. [12]
What the Federal Reserve itself holds ◆ MIXED, OR NO CHANGE
$6.76 trillion at August 12, 2026, up very slightly from $6.747 trillion at July 22, 2026. At its peak on April 13, 2022 the Fed held $8.97 trillion. It shrank for three and a half years from that peak to a low of $6.536 trillion on December 3, 2025, and it has grown since. It now stands about $224 billion above that low, and every reading this year has been above it. The shrinking did not stop in these four weeks; it stopped eight months ago. [7]
Our working: Fed total assets $6.760T at August 12, 2026, against $6.747T at July 22, 2026. Peak $8.965T on April 13, 2022; post-peak low $6.5358T on December 3, 2025, 3.64 years later. Latest is $224.2B above that low, +3.43%; every 2026 observation sits above the December 2025 low. [7] Computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [7].
The spare cash cushion in the system ▼ WORSE THAN LAST MONTH
On December 30, 2022, $2.55 trillion sat parked at the Fed overnight, earning the facility’s rate rather than being lent out into the market. At August 19, 2026, $0.32 billion does, against $0.90 billion on July 23. That cushion is 99.99% gone. It mattered because it was money that could step in and buy without anyone having to sell something first. [8]
Our working: Overnight reverse repurchase facility $0.317B at August 19, against $0.904B on July 23. Peak $2.554T on December 30, 2022. [8] The 99.99% is $0.317B against the $2.554T peak. Correction: the July issue said this facility had hit zero. It has not. Across 262 observations since August 2025 it has not printed zero on any day, its lowest reading was $0.030B, and it held $105.99B on December 31, 2025. [8] Arithmetic by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [8].
What the banks keep on hand ▼ WORSE THAN LAST MONTH
$2.94 trillion at August 19, 2026, about 31% below the peak of $4.28 trillion on December 8, 2021. It stood at $3.06 trillion at July 22, 2026, so it fell 4.1% over these four weeks. Reserves are the raw material of the payment system, and when they get scarce the price of overnight money starts to move. [9]
Our working: Reserve balances $2.9353T at August 19, 2026, against $3.0621T at July 22, 2026, a fall of 4.14%. Peak $4.2758T on December 8, 2021, so down 31.35%, and down 11.52% against $3.3173T at August 20, 2025. [9] Correction: the July issue printed $3.14T and described it as about a quarter below the peak. That was the July 15 observation, one week stale at publication; the July 22 reading was already out at $3.0621T, 28.38% below peak. The July issue also stated a one-year decline of about 5.6%; the correct figure at that date is 7.53%. From this issue the observation date is printed on the row. Arithmetic by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [9].
How much cash is sitting in money funds … WAITING ON NEW DATA
$8.29 trillion at the first quarter of 2026, the largest figure this series has recorded in plain dollars. That is a nominal-dollar reading, so it is a low bar: dollars grow on their own and the pool of savings is bigger than it was. This is a quarterly figure and nothing new has published since July. Money funds are not FDIC insured, are not guaranteed, and can lose value. [10]
Our working: Money market fund total financial assets $8.290T at Q1 2026, its own highest reading in nominal dollars, unadjusted for inflation or for the growth of total savings. Quarterly series. [10]
How much of that cash belongs to households … WAITING ON NEW DATA
$3.02 trillion at July 6, 2026. It has more than doubled since October 3, 2022, when households held $1.48 trillion. It also sits a little below its own peak of $3.05 trillion on April 6, 2026, which the doubling figure alone would not tell you. [11]
Our working: Retail money market fund assets $3.018T at July 6, against $1.48T on October 3, 2022. Peak $3.047T on April 6, 2026. [11] The doubling is $3.018T against $1.48T. Arithmetic by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [11].
How much of the debt is owned from overseas … WAITING ON NEW DATA
$9.27 trillion at the fourth quarter of 2025. This is the most lagged number on the card, running to the fourth quarter of 2025, so treat it as background rather than news. [14]
Our working: Federal debt held by foreign and international investors $9.271T at Q4 2025. Quarterly series. [14]
What China holds ◆ MIXED, OR NO CHANGE
$0.63 trillion at June 2026, down from $0.66 trillion at May 2026 and roughly half what it held at its July 2011 peak. This series runs on a two-month lag, so June 2026 is the newest reading available. [13]
Our working: China holdings of US Treasury securities $0.633T at June 2026, against $0.659T at May 2026. Down 13.4% over a year. Peak $1.320T in July 2011. [13] The half is $0.633T against the $1.320T peak. Arithmetic by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [13].
What Japan holds ◆ MIXED, OR NO CHANGE
$1.05 trillion at June 2026, the largest overseas position. Down a little from May 2026, though still up about 2% against June 2025. [13]
Our working: Japan holdings of US Treasury securities $1.046T at June 2026, against $1.050T at May 2026. Up 2.15% over a year. Peak $1.251T in August 2021. [13] The 2% is June 2026 against June 2025. Computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp from [13].
Peaks and month-over-month changes computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp from the exported series cited on each row. Diagnostic readings, not recommendations. History for context, not a prediction.
Overnight rates are not on the card above, because they are a spread between two rates rather than a level with a range. On August 18 and 19 the overnight rate stood at 3.65% against the 3.65% the Federal Reserve pays on reserves, having been 3.64% against 3.65% on July 23. [16]
Six of the nine did not move at all this month, and that is worth saying plainly rather than presenting them as unchanged. Total public debt, money market fund assets and total foreign holdings are quarterly series whose next release has not landed, and the country-level Treasury data runs on a two-month lag. A month-over-month of zero because there is no new observation is not the same thing as a level that held steady.
We told you last month what to watch for, and we measured the wrong version of it. Correcting that here. The July issue said the signal was the overnight rate that banks and funds charge each other climbing above the rate the Federal Reserve pays on reserves, and staying there. That was the right thing to watch. What we then showed you was the middle of that market, the rate at the halfway point of the day’s borrowing. The middle is not where funding strain shows up first. It shows up at the expensive end, in what the last borrowers of the day have to pay.
Both are published. Over the past year the middle of that market printed above the reserve rate on 102 of 250 trading days. Over the same year, the expensive end, the level below which 99% of the day’s borrowing was done, printed above the reserve rate on 242 of those 250 days. [16] So the reading we put in front of you was calm, and the reading that answers the question we actually posed has been elevated for essentially the whole year. On August 18 the middle sat level with the reserve rate at 3.65% while the expensive end sat at 3.72%, seven hundredths above it. The widest gap of the past year was 0.45 points, on October 31, 2025.
What that does and does not mean. It does not mean anything broke. Paying a few hundredths more at the end of the day is ordinary in a system with fewer spare reserves than it had, and the pattern is steady rather than deteriorating. What it means is that our July description pointed at the right dial and read the wrong number off it, and a reader who took us at our word would have concluded nothing was happening when the tail had been elevated all along. We would rather print that than quietly change the measure. From this issue on we watch the expensive end, and we will show both.
A second correction, on the same facility, and this one is about a word. The July issue told you this facility had hit zero. It has not. What we should have said is that it has fallen so far it no longer does the job it used to do. At its peak on December 30, 2022 it held $2.554 trillion. At August 19, 2026 it holds $0.317 billion, which is about one hundredth of one percent of what it was. But across 262 observations since August 2025 it has not printed zero on any day: its lowest reading was $0.030 billion, and it held $105.99 billion as recently as December 31, 2025, which is an ordinary year-end effect. It drains, and it refills a little at quarter ends. [8] So the shape of it was right and the word was wrong. Zero is a specific number and this series never reached it. A cushion that has fallen 99.99% is a different claim from a cushion that switched off on a date, and the second one is what we said. We would rather you catch us using a round number loosely than find it yourself and wonder what else we rounded.
The same data has a reading that runs in a saver’s favour, and it belongs here rather than only in the section on outside forecasts. Cash pays again. Households held $3.02 trillion in retail money market funds at July 6, 2026, against $1.48 trillion in October 2022, [11] and overnight financing sat at 3.65% on August 19. [16] Somebody deciding where to keep short-term money now has a paying alternative, which was not true through the years when overnight rates sat near zero. That is the other face of the same condition that makes funding harder to come by for everyone competing for it: what a saver is paid is what a borrower has to offer. Money market funds are not FDIC insured, are not guaranteed, and can lose value.
People typically hold money market funds expecting a steady share price and some interest, but that may not be the case. Money market funds are not FDIC insured, they are not guaranteed, and they can lose value. A high figure in dollars is also a low bar, because dollars grow on their own and the pool of savings is larger than it was.
Sources as cited per row. Money funds hold mostly, not only, Treasury bills and Treasury-backed repurchase agreements. Figures are as of their stated dates and are routinely revised. Diagnostic reading, not a recommendation. History for context, not a prediction.
Two things we studied this month
Both of these test something people assume. Neither is a view about what happens next.
These two studies exist because we do not want to repeat a comfortable assumption without checking it. The first asks whether gold has been the calmer holding. The second asks whether money creation reliably lifts gold. In both cases the answer is not the one most people expect, and we would rather find that out ourselves than be told it later.
This chart shows third-party market data. It is NOT the performance of the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and NOT the return of any account, which would be reduced by fees, transaction costs and taxes. Educational and illustrative only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
What we found, over three windows. The median is the middle reading, so half of all days sat above it and half below. From January 3, 2000 to August 19, 2026 the medians are almost identical: 13.78% for the S&P 500 against 14.54% for gold, with gold the more volatile on 54% of days. From August 19, 2016 to August 19, 2026, the last ten years, they are closer still: 13.03% against 13.14%, gold higher on 53% of days. Then 2026 breaks the pattern. From January 2, 2026 to August 19, 2026 the medians are 13.60% for the S&P 500 against 26.51% for gold, and gold’s sixty-day volatility has been above the index’s on every one of the 158 trading days so far this year. At the August 19, 2026 close the readings are 13.64% and 26.92%. [4][5]
And the other side, which matters just as much. The relationship reverses in a crisis. Through the September 2008 to June 2009 window the S&P 500 averaged 47% against gold’s 32%, and through the February to June 2020 window 48% against 20%. [4][5] So neither one is reliably the calmer holding; which is calmer depends entirely on what kind of period you are in. This is why our advisors size a position by how much it moves and not only by what it returned, and it is why gold is held with the volatility understood rather than assumed away.
This chart shows third-party market data. It is NOT the performance of the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and NOT the return of any account, which would be reduced by fees, transaction costs and taxes. Educational and illustrative only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
What we found. Correlate the levels of money supply and gold and you get +0.88, which looks like proof. But the same calculation gives +0.94 between money supply and the S&P 500, which is higher. Series that both rise over time will correlate strongly and meaninglessly. Correlate the growth rates instead, which is the defensible way, and it collapses to +0.08 across thirty-eight years of weekly observations. The rolling five-year figure has ranged from −0.69 to +0.76 and has been negative 59% of the time. [5][6]
The plainest version of the same point: money supply grew about 80% in both the 2000s and the 2010s. Gold rose 284% in the first of those decades and 35% in the second. [5][6] Same money growth, very different outcomes.
What this cannot tell us. Which way either series goes next, or that one causes the other. A correlation describes how two series moved together over a window you chose, and this one changes sign depending on the window. We are not saying money growth is irrelevant to gold. We are saying the relationship is not dependable enough to lean on, and that the version of it which looks most convincing is the one computed the wrong way. History for context, not a prediction.
What others expect, including where it argues against us
Outside forecasts, so we can find out whether we are the ones who are wrong.
LSEG and Reuters Polls, exported August 20, 2026. Federal funds poll dated August 17, 2026. Money market poll and FX poll dated as stated below. [18]
We do not produce forecasts. Other institutions do, and we read them deliberately, including when they cut against our own thinking. That is the point of this section. Everything in it is the collected view of the institutions polled, not ours.
On policy rates, the median of the economists polled by Reuters on August 17 puts the federal funds mid-point at 3.625% in every quarter from the third quarter of 2026 through the fourth quarter of 2027. Six quarters, no change in the median. [18]
But a median is not agreement, and this is the part that matters. At the near horizon the responses span 3.625% to 3.875% with a standard deviation of 0.074 across 104 contributors. By the fourth quarter of 2027 they span 2.875% to 4.375% with a standard deviation of 0.373, and only 73 contributors submitted a figure at all. Named institutions reach opposite conclusions from the same information: one has 4.375% by the first quarter of 2027, others have 3.125% by late 2027. The number of forecasters willing to put a figure on it falls as the horizon lengthens, which is a fact about forecasters rather than about the future. [18]
Where this argues against our own read. Our framework treats the cost of money as the measure that sets the weight of the others, and treats funding as something that now has to be won from savers at a real price. If the polled median is right and policy sits still for six quarters, that pressure does not intensify, it simply persists. That is a genuine argument against escalating the story, and it comes from 104 institutions rather than from us. It cuts the other way too: the money market poll puts three-month overnight financing at a 3.65% median twelve months out, essentially where it sits today, which would mean cash keeps paying roughly what it pays now and remains a real alternative for a saver. We do not trade on any of this. We use it to find out whether we are the ones who are wrong. [18]
What this cannot tell us. What will actually happen. A poll measures opinion, not outcome, and the money market poll rests on ten to fourteen contributors while its Treasury bill leg rests on three to six, which is too thin to call a consensus at all. We show the count so you can weigh it yourself. [18]
What this means for a client of the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies
Our goal is to be transparent in our thought process and to educate our clients.
The measures on the board are drawn from the diagnostic layer of our KFSC Macro Intelligence work. They are a sample of what we analyze, not the whole of it. Our strategies may change at any time, based on the risk option you selected, ranging from Preservation of Capital to Aggressive Growth.
This month, in three lines. Two measures moved by more than an ordinary month, and both describe a market that got more expensive. The cost of money and money growth barely moved. Participation stayed broad, which is the good reading, and four of the funding series simply have no new observation to report.
The liquidity picture is the one we most want clients to sit with, because it sits underneath all the others. The money that was created after 2020, and the spare cash that sat unused alongside it, is no longer arriving the way it did. What holds prices where they are now has to be drawn from savers who have a genuine choice about where to put their money, and drawn again as short-term debt rolls over. That does not tell us the market will fall, and we are not predicting one. It tells us where the funding is coming from and that it has to be competed for. That is a condition your advisor weighs against the risk option you have chosen, not a signal to act on by itself.
Within the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, our advisors have currently de-risked from equities, meaning the strategies carry less stock-market risk than they would in calmer conditions. That is a statement of current positioning, not a personal recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Positioning depends on the risk option you selected, from Preservation of Capital to Aggressive Growth, and may change at any time at your advisor’s discretion.
Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. We measure, we say what we see, and your advisor decides what, if anything, it means for you.
Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
The video, and what is coming
The short read is here. The full explanation is on video.
This month’s video chapter takes apart the cost of money: what the 10-year Treasury yield actually is, why it reaches your house whether or not you ever buy one, why it reads two opposite ways at the same time depending on how far back you look, and what it does to the price of everything else. It is the measure that barely moved this month, and it is still the one that changes what the others mean.
Each month the same board is published, and one chapter goes deep on video. Next month the chapter is participation, and what a decade of concentration actually paid the people who owned the index. After that, the earned dollar, and what changes when cash is a real alternative again. Over a year you will have had all of it explained properly, one piece at a time, rather than all of it explained badly at once.
Chapters are chosen by what the data made important and by what clients asked about, and the second of those is genuinely half of it. If there is something here you want taken apart in more detail, tell your advisor. This is an editorial plan for this series, not a statement about markets, rates or prices.
Sources
References in order of appearance. Prepared August 20, 2026. Market data runs to the August 19, 2026 close; monthly and quarterly series carry their own observation dates, stated where each is used. Every data figure traces to a source below. All percentile placements, year-to-date figures, month-over-month changes, normal-month figures, volatility calculations and correlations were computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp directly from the exported series listed here.
Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts, and is not the source of any market or economic figure in this commentary. Every figure is third-party data, cited below. Nothing in this commentary is the performance of the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies or the return of any account.
[1] GuruFocus. (2026, August 19). S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, monthly, 1871 to 2026 [Data export]. Retrieved from gurufocus.com. Cited for the Shiller PE of 41.76 at August 2026, the July reading of 40.62, the median of 21.29 and the percentile placement, all computed on observations from January 1970 forward.
[2] GuruFocus. (2026, August 19). Total US market capitalization as a percent of GDP, daily, 1970 to 2026 [Data export]. Retrieved from gurufocus.com. Cited for 241% at August 18, 2026 and 232% at July 23, 2026, and the median and percentile placement since 1970.
[3] GuruFocus. Insider buy/sell ratio, US overall market, monthly [Data export]. Cited for the July 2026 reading of 0.22. The August reading is not yet available to us, and this measure is marked pending rather than estimated.
[4] LSEG Workspace. (2026, August 19). S&P 500 (.SPX) and S&P 500 Equal Weight (.EWGSPC) total return, daily, December 1986 to August 19, 2026 [Data exports]. Cited for the year-to-date returns of +13.4% and +15.7% from the December 31, 2025 close, the participation gap of 2.3 points, the ten-year returns of +316.8% and +162.4%, and the mid-August year ranking of seventh of twenty-three years since 2004.
[5] LSEG Workspace. (2026, August 20). Daily series: gold spot (XAU=), US 10-year benchmark yield (US10YT=RR), dollar index (.DXY), USD/JPY, USD/CHF, March 1968 to August 20, 2026 [Data exports, two files combined]. Cited for gold at $4,521.09 on August 19, 2026 against $4,047.15 on July 23, 2026 and $4,314.12 on December 31, 2025; the 10-year at 4.653% against 4.703% and 4.153% on those dates; the 2010s maximum of 3.988%; the dollar index at 98.833 against 101.444 and 98.322; USD/JPY at 158.16 against 163.85; USD/CHF at 0.7973 against 0.8165; and the realized volatility series.
[6] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 money stock (M2SL), monthly, seasonally adjusted, January 1959 to June 2026 [Data set]. FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved August 21, 2026; series last updated by the publisher July 28, 2026. Cited for year-over-year growth of +5.53% at June 2026 and +5.58% at May 2026, the 34th percentile placement and +6.59% median since 1960, the +40.6% expansion from February 2020 to the March 2022 peak of $21,787.2 billion, the subsequent 4.8% contraction to October 2023, the recovery above that prior peak in May 2025, and the money-to-output ratio. Latest observation June 2026.
[7] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Total assets of the Federal Reserve (WALCL), weekly [Data set]. FRED. Cited for $6.76 trillion at August 12, 2026 and the $8.9655 trillion peak at April 13, 2022.
[8] Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Overnight reverse repurchase agreements (RRPONTSYD), daily [Data set]. FRED. Cited for $0.32 billion at August 19, 2026 and the $2.5537 trillion peak at December 30, 2022.
[9] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks (WRESBAL), weekly [Data set]. FRED. Retrieved August 21, 2026. Cited for $2.9353 trillion at August 19, 2026 and $3.0621 trillion at July 22, 2026, the $4.2758 trillion peak at December 8, 2021, the resulting 31.4% decline from that peak, the $3.1427 trillion July 15, 2026 observation published in the July issue, and the 11.5% decline over one year against $3.3173 trillion at August 20, 2025.
[10] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Money market funds; total financial assets (MMMFFAQ027S), quarterly, Z.1 Financial Accounts [Data set]. FRED. Cited for $8.29 trillion at the first quarter of 2026 and $4.0025 trillion at late 2019. Quarterly, and unchanged since the July issue.
[11] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Retail money market funds (WRMFNS), weekly [Data set]. FRED. Cited for $3.0178 trillion at July 6, 2026 against $1.4799 trillion at October 3, 2022, an increase of 104%.
[12] U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service. Federal debt: total public debt (GFDEBTN), quarterly [Data set]. FRED. Cited for $39.0654 trillion at the first quarter of 2026, an increase of $2.8511 trillion over one year and $7.6457 trillion since October 2022. Gross basis, including intragovernmental holdings.
[13] U.S. Department of the Treasury. Treasury International Capital system: foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, China (FORTREASPOS41408) and Japan long-term (FORLTTREASPOS42609), monthly [Data sets]. FRED. Cited for China at $0.6334 trillion and Japan at $1.0462 trillion, both June 2026, and China's $1.3203 trillion peak at July 2011. These are the largest reported holders, not the foreign total, and the series runs on a two-month lag.
[14] U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service. Federal debt held by foreign and international investors (FDHBFIN), quarterly [Data set]. FRED. Cited for $9.2709 trillion at the fourth quarter of 2025 against $8.6193 trillion a year earlier.
[15] World Gold Council. (2026, July). World official gold holdings [Data set, from International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics]. Cited for official gold holdings as a share of total reserves. Gold shares move with the gold price and are a position, not a flow.
[16] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, interest on reserve balances (IORB), and Federal Reserve Bank of New York, secured overnight financing rate (SOFR), daily [Data sets]. FRED. Cited for SOFR at 3.65% on August 18, 2026 and interest on reserve balances at 3.65% on August 19, 2026, against 3.64% and 3.65% respectively on July 23, 2026.
[17] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross domestic product (GDP), quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate [Data set]. FRED. Cited for $32.4752 trillion at the second quarter of 2026 and as the denominator of the money-to-output ratio.
[18] LSEG and Reuters Polls. (2026, August). Central Bank Polls, Money Market Polls, FX Polls and Long-Term Economic Outlooks, United States [Data exports, downloaded August 20, 2026]. Cited for the federal funds poll of August 17, 2026 with 104 contributors at the near horizon and 73 at the far horizon, the money market poll for three-month SOFR, and the FX poll of August 4, 2026. These are the collected views of the institutions polled. They are not the views of Keaney Financial Services Corp, which does not produce forecasts.
Where this commentary describes what other parties expect or intend, those are the stated views of those parties, not of Keaney Financial Services Corp.
1. Compliance Disclosures and Risk Warnings
This commentary is published by Keaney Financial Services Corp for educational and informational purposes only. It is a diagnostic read of market fundamentals, liquidity, credit conditions and valuation. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, or a guarantee of any outcome. Past performance is not indicative of future results and does not guarantee future returns. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Markets can be volatile, and values can fluctuate due to economic, geopolitical, regulatory and other factors. Readers should consult their own financial, legal and tax advisors before making investment decisions. Keaney Financial Services Corp and its representatives do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any third-party data referenced herein.
2. Precious Metals Disclosure
This commentary discusses gold as a macroeconomic construct and references its market price. Gold and other precious metals are physical commodities, not securities. They produce no earnings, dividends, interest, rent or any other cash flow, so the entire return from holding them depends on the price changing. Precious metals prices can be highly volatile, can decline substantially, and have historically remained below a prior peak for extended periods measured in years and in some cases decades. Gold is frequently described as a hedge, a store of value or a safe haven. Those descriptions are not reliable and this commentary does not adopt them: the readings shown here indicate that gold has been the more volatile of the two assets against the S&P 500 on the majority of days since 2000, and that its relationship with money supply growth changes sign depending on the window measured. A spot price is a reference for the metal itself and is not something an investor can purchase. Any vehicle providing exposure carries additional and different risks from the metal, which may include storage, insurance, assay, custody and dealer spread costs for physical bullion; counterparty, issuer credit, structure and tracking risk for exchange-traded products; roll cost, margin and leverage risk for futures; and business, jurisdiction, operating and equity-market risk for mining companies. In the United States, gains on physical precious metals and on certain metal-backed products may be taxed as collectibles at a rate higher than the long-term capital gains rate; clients should consult their own tax advisor. Precious metals are not FDIC insured, are not bank guaranteed and may lose value. Nothing in this commentary is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold gold, any other precious metal, or any vehicle providing exposure to them.
3. Volatility and Risk Measurement Disclosure
Where this commentary shows volatility, it is realized volatility: a backward-looking descriptive statistic calculated as the standard deviation of daily logarithmic price changes over a stated window of sixty trading days, annualized. It describes how much a price moved during a period that has already happened. It does not describe whether an investment gained or lost, does not measure the probability of loss, and does not predict future volatility. Realized volatility is not implied volatility, such as the CBOE Volatility Index, which is derived from option prices and reflects expectations; the two measures frequently diverge and are not interchangeable. Volatility calculated over one window can differ materially from the same series measured over a different window, so the window is stated wherever a figure is given. Annualizing a shorter-period figure follows the convention that variance scales with time, which is a mathematical convention rather than an observed property of markets. Standard deviation treats upward and downward movement identically and understates tail risk, and large adverse moves have historically occurred more frequently than a normal distribution would imply. A period of low measured volatility is not an indication of low risk, and a period of high measured volatility is not an indication that a loss will occur. Where our advisors reference how much an asset moves in sizing a position within the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, that practice is intended to manage risk and cannot eliminate it, prevent loss, or guarantee any outcome.
4. Framework and Risk Management Disclosure
The KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, including its KFSC Macro Regime Model and four diagnostic frameworks (the Monetary Integrity Framework, the Liquidity Transmission Framework, the Strategic Scarcity Framework and the Market Structure Framework), provides analytical tools used to support advisor decision-making. These tools are not automated systems, do not predict future market outcomes, and do not dictate trades or portfolio actions. All portfolio decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor based on their interpretation of available data, client objectives and prevailing market conditions. Investing involves risk, including political and geopolitical instability, changes in economic and monetary systems, currency fluctuations, market liquidity conditions and rapid price volatility. These factors may result in significant fluctuations in portfolio value and may not be suitable for all investors. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Asset allocation, diversification and risk management strategies are designed to manage risk but do not guarantee profits or protect against losses.
5. Forward-Looking Statements Disclosure
This commentary contains interpretive analysis of market fundamentals, liquidity, credit conditions and valuation, written in clear, everyday language for a general reader. These statements are based on current observations, publicly reported information and analytical interpretation. There is no assurance that current conditions will continue or follow any particular path. Any discussion of current conditions reflects interpretive analysis and is not a definitive explanation of causation or a prediction of future results. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Where this commentary references the expectations of other parties, including the LSEG and Reuters polls at reference [18], those are the stated views of the institutions polled and not the views of Keaney Financial Services Corp. Forecasting future market data is not part of the firm's analytical methodology.
6. Allocation and Positioning Disclosure
This commentary is not intended as investment advice for the general public. It is specifically prepared for clients and prospective clients invested in or considering the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, and may not apply to other investments managed by advisors at Keaney Financial Services Corp outside of these strategies. The KFSC Risk Managed Strategies are discretionary, dynamic and adaptive. Portfolio positioning, allocations and exposures may change at any time without notice due to evolving market conditions and the advisor's judgment. These strategies are implemented across six distinct mandates on a spectrum from Preservation of Capital through Aggressive Growth (Preservation of Capital, Conservative, Conservative Growth, Moderate, Moderate Growth and Aggressive Growth), each with its own risk profile, volatility expectations and portfolio construction approach. Suitability of any particular strategy for an individual client is assessed prior to investment. While the macroeconomic themes described here are derived from the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System and inform the firm's broader outlook, the specific asset class allocations, position sizes and underlying holdings may differ materially across strategies, consistent with each strategy's risk mandate.
7. Methodology and Data Disclosure
The market readings in this commentary are drawn from third-party data, each cited in the Sources. Valuation and insider-activity series were exported from GuruFocus, which compiles them from underlying exchange, company-filing and government data. Index total-return series and the 1968 to 2026 daily yield, gold and currency series were exported from LSEG Workspace. Money supply, Federal Reserve balance-sheet, reverse-repurchase, bank-reserve, overnight-rate, money-market-fund, federal-debt, foreign-holdings and gross-domestic-product figures are official statistics of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved through FRED. Poll data was exported from LSEG and Reuters Polls. All percentile placements, year-to-date returns, month-over-month changes, normal-month figures, window changes, volatility calculations, correlations and rankings were computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp directly from those exported series. A percentile is the share of that series' own historical observations below the current reading, and it is used only on ratios and rates that mean-revert, never on a series that rises over time by construction. The normal-month figure is the median absolute one-month change across that series' own recorded history. Realized volatility is the standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over sixty trading days, annualized. Correlations are computed on year-over-year growth rates, never on levels, because two series that both rise over time will correlate strongly and meaninglessly. Year-to-date returns are total returns, including dividends where labeled. Different data compilers publish slightly different values for the same concepts; figures here are as published by the named sources on the retrieval date. All figures are third-party statistics. Nothing here describes the return of any account or the performance of the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, which would be reduced by fees, transaction costs and taxes. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not originate underlying market or government data. All data is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed and may be revised, restated, delayed or estimated. Every figure in this commentary can be traced back to a named third-party series without contacting Keaney Financial Services Corp: an index of every figure, the date it was observed, the source it came from and the arithmetic behind it appears at the end of this commentary. Nothing in this commentary is a Keaney Financial Services Corp estimate, projection or forecast. Where a figure is arithmetic performed on a third-party series, that is stated and the arithmetic is shown.
8. Research, Data and Technology Disclosure
Research, analysis and data referenced in this material are developed through the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, which integrates multiple data sources, analytical inputs and research processes. These sources may include contributions from non-affiliated third-party providers, such as market data vendors (for example LSEG), statistical agencies, central banks and news organizations. Such sources are believed to be reliable but are not independently verified by Keaney Financial Services Corp and may be revised. As part of the research and analytical process, advanced computational tools and artificial intelligence systems may be used to assist in organizing, synthesizing and interpreting data, and to assist in producing charts, graphics and imagery used in this material. These tools support analysis within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, but they do not independently generate investment recommendations, make investment decisions or replace the advisor's judgment. All outputs are subject to human review, interpretation and oversight. No amount of research, data analysis or technological support can eliminate the inherent risks of investing or guarantee any specific outcome.
9. Specific Securities Disclosure
This commentary does not name, recommend or specifically reference any individual security, exchange-traded product, fund or financial instrument. References to gold are to the metal and its market price as a macroeconomic construct, not to any specific issuer or investment vehicle. References to Treasury securities are to the market for government debt as a macroeconomic construct, not a recommendation to purchase Treasury securities, Treasury inflation-protected securities, exchange-traded products or any other instrument. Any exposure held in client portfolios is selected based on advisor due diligence and the risk mandate of the specific KFSC Risk Managed Strategies in which the client is invested. No portion of this commentary should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any specific security or asset.
10. Historical Series and Dataset Disclosure
The information referenced in this material is drawn from the series identified in the Sources: the GuruFocus valuation and insider series, the LSEG index total-return, gold, yield and currency series, the official Federal Reserve, Treasury and Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics, the World Gold Council compilation of International Monetary Fund data, and the LSEG and Reuters poll exports. The decade patterns, percentile placements, month-over-month changes, normal-month figures, volatility calculations, correlations, window changes and peak-to-trough measurements shown are derived directly from those continuous series. They are descriptive periods within each series, not discrete events selected for backtesting or trend extrapolation. Past patterns are not a reliable predictor of future patterns. All figures are as of the dates and reference periods specified and are subject to revision as new information becomes available.
11. Statistical Interpretation and Non-Predictive Use Disclosure
All figures presented, including annual and year-to-date changes, month-over-month changes, normal-month figures, decade cumulative changes, percentile placements, series medians, ratio levels, growth rates, realized volatility, correlations and peak-to-trough drawdowns, are drawn directly from the data identified in the Sources and are provided for descriptive and contextual purposes only. These measures do not represent expected outcomes, imply the probability of recurrence, or constitute forecasts or projections. A single month's change is one observation within a series and is not evidence of a trend; the normal-month comparison is provided so readers can judge the size of a change against that series' own ordinary variation, and it is descriptive rather than predictive. A correlation describes how two series moved together over a chosen window and is not evidence that one causes the other; correlations shown here change sign depending on the window selected, which is why the range is shown alongside the level. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not claim that any condition described will continue, reverse, strengthen or weaken. All forward-looking interpretations remain subject to uncertainty and advisor discretion.
12. Advisor Discretion Statement
All investment decisions are advisor-led and implemented through the applicable KFSC Risk Managed Strategy risk option. Clients select a risk option before investing, and position sizing is determined at the strategy and model level. Our advisors do not make individualized position changes for each client within the same strategy model. Advisors may review whether a client's selected risk option remains appropriate based on risk tolerance, objectives, time horizon, liquidity needs and changes in financial circumstances. Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
13. Business Entity Disclosure
Keaney Financial Services Corp. provides insurance and financial services. Ameritas Investment Company, LLC (AIC), Member FINRA / SIPC, provides securities and investments. Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC (AAS) provides investment advisory services. AIC and AAS are not affiliated with Keaney Financial Services Corp. Ernesto Keaney and Emmelis Keaney are Investment Adviser Representatives of Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC. Accounts are managed on the Ameritas Wealth Platform.
Index of every figure
Shiller PE [1]
at Aug 1
Total market value against a year of output [2]
at Aug 18
Average stock against the weighted index [4]
at Aug 19
Buys per sale, counts [3]
no new observation since the July issue
US 10-year Treasury [5]
at Aug 19
M2, year over year [6]
at Jun 2026
What the federal government owes [12]
Q1 2026
What the Fed itself holds [7]
at Aug 12
Cash parked at the Fed overnight [8]
at Aug 19
What banks keep at the Fed [9]
at Aug 19
Total cash held in money funds [10]
Q1 2026
The household share of that cash [11]
at Jul 6
What overseas holders own [14]
Q4 2025
One large overseas holder [13]
at Jun 2026
The largest overseas holder [13]
at Jun 2026
S&P 500 and gold, 60-day annualized [4][5]
at Aug 19, 2026
rolling five-year correlation [5][6]
at Aug 19
Reuters and LSEG polls [18]
polls dated Aug 17, 2026
Reference numbers in square brackets point to the Sources list below. Every series is a third-party publication; Keaney Financial Services Corp is not the source of any market or economic figure in this commentary.
Produced by Keaney Financial Services Corp · August 20, 2026