Copper Through The Scarcity FrameCopper is trading near the highs of its multi-year cycle[1] while the market sits in surplus and inventories have nearly quadrupled[2]. The apparent contradiction is the story. This is how we read it within our framework, and how it fits the work we do within some of our KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. |
A Rising Price In An Oversupplied Market
| The Analytical Read The headline most copper observers would write today is the price. Copper reached $12,095 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange in February 2025[1] and currently trades near $12,349 per tonne as of May 9, 2026[6]. The conventional explanation for this kind of price is supply scarcity. The data we have shows something different. Global copper consumption ran below global production in 2023, 2024, and 2025, every one of those three years a surplus, not a deficit. Total reported copper held in exchange-monitored warehouses (the London Metal Exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the United States Commodity Exchange, and Shanghai Metal Market bonded warehouses) rose from 222 thousand tonnes to 822 thousand tonnes between year-end 2023 and year-end 2025[2], a near-quadrupling. Price climbed while the market was, on paper, oversupplied and inventories were rising. In our reading, the apparent contradiction resolves into three threads. The inventory build is geographic concentration in one venue rather than a genuine global oversupply. The forward supply-and-demand math has consumption growth structurally above production growth from 2026 onward[2]. And the demand picture is dominated by a single country whose share has been rising for a decade[5]. The commentary walks through each. |
| In Plain English The price of copper has been rising, and the story behind that rise does not match the simple headline of "shortage causes price increase." For the past three years, the world has actually produced slightly more copper than it has used. Over the same period, the amount of copper sitting in storage has nearly quadrupled[2]. Normally, when supply runs ahead of demand and stockpiles grow, prices fall. The opposite has happened. We see three reasons for this, and we walk through each in the sections that follow. The short version: most of the growing stockpile is sitting in one country[2]. According to LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus, the gap between supply and demand is forecast to close over the next three years[3]. And one country is responsible for more than half of all the copper used in the world[5]. None of this is certain to continue, but it is what the data currently shows. |
GLOBAL COPPER PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND ANNUAL PRICE  What this chart shows: Production has slightly exceeded consumption every year since 2023. Per LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus, the surplus is forecast to remain through 2028 while narrowing. The annual average price has roughly doubled over the same six-year span. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts; the forecast values shown are third-party analyst consensus. |
Where Copper Is Today, And How It Got Here
| The Analytical Read Copper has roughly quadrupled from its 2009 trough. The most recent significant move began in 2023. Annual average prices were $8,523 per tonne (2023), $9,266 (2024), and $9,972 (2025)[2]. The February 2025 peak at $12,095 was the high of the current cycle[1]. As of our diagnostic dated May 9, 2026, copper is near $12,349 per tonne[6]. LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus forecasts for the remainder of 2026 sit in the $11,500 to $12,878 range[3], with average prices expected to ease modestly from the early-2026 high. Third-party analyst forecasts can be wrong, and recent forecasts have not fully captured the most recent price action. We treat them as one input among several. |
| In Plain English Copper is currently around $12,300 per tonne[6]. To put that in context, copper was below $3,000 per tonne fifteen years ago. The recent climb really began in 2023, with the average annual price rising from about $8,500 in 2023 to about $10,000 in 2025[2], with a peak of just over $12,000 in early 2025[1]. LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus forecasts prices around $11,500 to $12,900 through the rest of this year[3]. Third-party analyst forecasts can be and often are wrong. We treat them as one piece of information, not as a destination. |
QUARTERLY LONDON METAL EXCHANGE COPPER PRICE WITH FORECAST RANGE  What this chart shows: Quarterly average prices climbed steeply through 2025 and into early 2026. The shaded band shows the range of LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus forecasts. The vertical line separates actual prices from forecasts. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts; the forecast values shown are third-party analyst consensus. |
The Forward Math Tightens
| The Analytical Read Annual supply-and-demand data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics shows global refined copper production at 27,341 thousand tonnes in 2025 and consumption at 26,825 thousand tonnes, a surplus of 516 thousand tonnes[2]. Looking forward, LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus forecasts production growth of 0.6% to 2.0% annually through 2028, with consumption growth forecast at 1.4% to 2.4% annually. From 2026 onward, consumption growth is forecast above production growth every year. The same analyst consensus has the market balance compressing from a surplus of 516 thousand tonnes (2025) to a surplus of 50 thousand tonnes (2028), effectively a return to balance[3]. Global refined copper production has grown at approximately 2.4% compound annual rate over the last two decades, from 1,369 thousand tonnes per month in February 2006 to 2,204 thousand tonnes per month in February 2026[4]. The pattern in the data is one of slow, steady supply growth without surge capacity in the refined market. |
| In Plain English The world is currently producing slightly more copper than it uses, but only slightly. In 2025, total production was about 27.3 million tonnes and total consumption was about 26.8 million tonnes. The gap was about half a million tonnes[2]. Looking forward, LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus forecasts that gap will shrink each year for the next three years, until the market is roughly balanced by 2028. The reason is that consumption is forecast to grow a little faster than production, every year. Small differences each year, but they add up[3]. On the supply side, the long-term picture is one of slow, steady growth. Global refined copper production has grown at roughly 2.4 percent per year for two decades, never a boom, never a bust, just a steady climb[4]. The pattern is steady supply growth without surge capacity. |
ANNUAL COPPER MARKET BALANCE AND LONDON METAL EXCHANGE THREE-MONTH PRICE  What this chart shows: The market shifted from deficit in 2021 and 2022 into surplus from 2023 onward. Per LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus, the forecast surplus narrows each year through 2028. Price has risen steadily across both the deficit and surplus periods. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts; the forecast values shown are third-party analyst consensus. |
GLOBAL COPPER PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION GROWTH  What this chart shows: In 2024, consumption growth jumped to 4.3 percent while production growth was 3.1 percent. From 2026 onward, LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus forecasts consumption growth to remain above production growth every year. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts; the forecast values shown are third-party analyst consensus. |
GLOBAL REFINED COPPER PRODUCTION, MONTHLY  What this chart shows: Refined copper production has grown along a near-straight line for two decades. From about 1,370 thousand tonnes per month in 2006 to about 2,200 thousand tonnes per month in 2026, a steady 2.4 percent per year. |
The Demand Picture Is Concentrated
| The Analytical Read The single largest factor in global copper demand is China. The World Bureau of Metal Statistics data, retrieved May 2026, shows Chinese refined copper consumption at 15,333 thousand tonnes in 2024 and 15,423 thousand tonnes in 2025. Against global totals of 26,924 and 26,883 respectively, this represents 57.0% (2024) and 57.4% (2025) of world consumption. The trajectory has been upward. China's share was 50.7% in 2017[5]. The next-largest consumers, by share of 2024 global consumption: the United States (5.8%), Germany (3.5%), Japan (3.1%), India (3.0%), South Korea (2.4%), Italy (2.0%), and Taiwan (1.8%)[5]. The top eight countries combined account for 78.6% of global consumption. The remaining 21.4% is distributed across all other countries. In our reading, this concentration changes the nature of the copper outlook. The phrase "global demand" is, in numerical terms, mostly Chinese demand. A 5% change in Chinese demand changes the global picture by approximately 770 thousand tonnes. A 5% change in everyone else combined changes the global picture by approximately 580 thousand tonnes. The asymmetry is the story. We do not have country-level forward forecasts in the data files for this commentary, so we cannot project Chinese demand into the future from this evidence alone. We can confirm the structural concentration that exists today. |
| In Plain English One country dominates copper demand. China alone uses more than half of all the copper the world produces. About 57 cents of every dollar of global copper consumption in 2024 came from China[5]. This is not new. China has been the largest consumer for years. What has changed is the trajectory. Ten years ago China was about half of global demand. Today it is approaching three-fifths[5]. All other countries combined use less copper than China by itself. The United States is in second place at about 6 percent of the world total. Germany, Japan, India, and South Korea each use between 2 and 4 percent[5]. The practical reading: the global copper outlook is, in plain numerical terms, mostly a question about Chinese demand. If China keeps using copper at the rate it is growing now, the math of supply and demand tightens. If Chinese demand slows materially, the global picture loosens regardless of what other countries do. We do not know what Chinese demand will do. We can show you what it has done. |
GLOBAL REFINED COPPER CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY  What this chart shows: China's share of global copper consumption has grown from 50.7 percent in 2017 to 57.4 percent in 2025. All other countries combined use less copper than China alone. |
The Inventory Build Is Geographic, Not Global
| The Analytical Read Total reported copper stocks across the four reporting venues, the London Metal Exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the United States Commodity Exchange, and Shanghai Metal Market bonded warehouses, moved from 222 thousand tonnes at year-end 2023 to 822 thousand tonnes at year-end 2025, a near-quadrupling in two years[2]. On the surface this reads as oversupply. A closer look at the composition tells a different story. London stocks fell from 271 thousand tonnes (2024) to 145 thousand tonnes (2025), a tightening at the global pricing reference. Shanghai stocks grew modestly, from 74 to 112 thousand tonnes. The dramatic move was at the United States Commodity Exchange, which went from 19 thousand tonnes (2023) to 93 (2024) to 498 (2025), roughly 26 times its 2023 level[2]. In our reading, this pattern is geographic relocation of metal into United States warehouses rather than a genuine global oversupply. The London market, which serves as the global pricing reference, actually tightened over the same period. We can show in the data that this relocation happened. We can show its magnitude. The cause is not directly demonstrable from the LSEG and World Bureau of Metal Statistics data files we have. Plausible explanations exist in the public record (tariff positioning, arbitrage, specific industrial buyer activity), but those require sources beyond the data files for this commentary. |
| In Plain English The amount of copper in storage warehouses has grown a lot, from about 222 thousand tonnes at the end of 2023 to about 822 thousand tonnes at the end of 2025[2]. That sounds like oversupply. But almost all of that increase happened in one place. Copper stored in London actually went down over the same period. Copper stored in Shanghai went up only a little. Copper stored in United States warehouses went up by a factor of 26, from 19 thousand tonnes to nearly 500 thousand tonnes[2]. So the picture is not "the world has too much copper." It is "a lot of copper has moved to one country." Why is that happening? We have ideas. Possible tariff concerns. Traders moving copper for resale. Specific industrial buyers stocking up. The data we have does not prove which explanation is correct. What we can say with confidence is that the London market, which is the global reference price, actually tightened, even as the United States stockpile ballooned[2]. That is a different story than the headline number suggests. |
REPORTED COPPER STOCKS BY EXCHANGE, YEAR-END  What this chart shows: Total stocks have grown sharply, but almost all of the growth is in one venue. London Metal Exchange stocks actually fell in 2025. The United States Commodity Exchange portion grew 26-fold across the two-year span. |
Factories And Traders Currently Agree
| The Analytical Read Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes for the three major regions, Europe, the United States, and Asia, are currently all above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. As of recent monthly readings, Europe is just above 50, the United States is in the mid-50s, and Asia is in the mid-50s. The simultaneous expansion across all three regions is itself a notable event. For much of 2023 through 2025, Europe was below 50 while the others fluctuated above and below. The current synchronization is recent[7]. The relationship between global manufacturing activity and copper prices, measured on a year-over-year basis, is a documented historical pattern[7]. When the global manufacturing index and the copper price have both been accelerating together, copper rallies have historically extended. We currently see both moving in the same direction. Past patterns are not a reliable predictor of future patterns. Speculative positioning in the United States copper futures market, sourced from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders data via LSEG, shows managed money net long in the upper portion of its 2018 through 2026 range[8]. The long side is heavy. The short side is light. Positioning is consistent with the upward price direction in the short run, which is supportive in normal trading. It also represents crowded-trade risk if the macro picture changes. |
| In Plain English A few things are working in copper's favor right now from the broader economy. Manufacturing activity, meaning factories making things, is expanding in the United States, Europe, and Asia at the same time. This is the first time in about three years all three major regions have been growing together[7]. Factories use a lot of copper, so when factories get busier, demand for copper goes up. There is also a long-running pattern. When global manufacturing is speeding up and copper prices are rising at the same time, the price increase has historically tended to extend[7]. That is what is happening right now. Past patterns are not a reliable predictor of future ones. Big traders in the copper futures market, the kind of money that pays close attention, are positioned heavily on the side that benefits from rising prices[8]. That is supportive in the short run. It is also worth knowing that when most of the market is positioned one way, prices can move sharply in the opposite direction if news disappoints. |
MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX BY REGION  What this chart shows: All three regions are currently above the 50 threshold that marks expansion. The simultaneous expansion across Europe, the United States, and Asia is recent. Above 50 means factories are expanding. Below 50 means they are contracting. |
GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX AND LONDON METAL EXCHANGE COPPER PRICE, YEAR-OVER-YEAR  What this chart shows: When global manufacturing activity rises year-over-year, copper prices have historically risen alongside. The two lines have moved together repeatedly across major cycles. |
SPECULATIVE POSITIONING IN UNITED STATES COPPER FUTURES  What this chart shows: Big traders (called managed money in the data) are currently positioned heavily on the long side, meaning they benefit if copper rises. The black net-positioning line is in the upper part of its recent range. |
Where Copper Sits In Our Current Analysis
| The Analytical Read We read the current macro environment through our KFSC Macro Regime Model, which is our internal framework for classifying the economic environment into one of several recognized states. Our current reading places the environment in what our framework labels Disinflationary Stability, a period of continued growth with cooling price pressures, often described as a soft landing. This is a stable reading rather than a stressed one[6]. Our framework decomposes the environment further into four standing analytical frames. The frame most relevant to copper is what we call Strategic Scarcity, our analysis of how supply-and-demand conditions across real assets and commodities are tracking. Our current read of the Strategic Scarcity frame is the strongest of the four, with the framework state described as supply-constrained and strengthening[6]. In our analysis, this matches the picture the copper data shows. The other three frames give context. Our reading of liquidity conditions across the financial system is neutral and stable. Our reading of long-run monetary integrity (the durability of currencies and reserve dynamics) shows mild deterioration, which is more directly relevant to gold and silver than to copper. Our reading of financial market structure shows risk increasing, which is relevant to position sizing and to all parts of portfolios that get repriced by macro volatility, including copper. We weigh these together. Our framework currently treats present conditions as appropriate for advisor attention on the categories of assets that respond to scarcity, including real assets and metals. This is not a directive. It is part of our diagnostic of conditions that warrant our review. Any resulting position decision sits with our advisors, working within the risk mandate of each strategy. |
| In Plain English Our firm uses a framework, what we call the KFSC Macro Regime Model, to read the broader economy. The framework places the current period into one of several recognized economic environments. Right now, our reading is a period our framework labels Disinflationary Stability. In plain language: the economy is growing steadily, inflation is cooling without a recession, and there is no immediate crisis[6]. This is a relatively benign environment. Inside that environment, our framework has us look at four separate analytical lenses. The lens that matters most for copper is our lens on scarcity, meaning how tight is the supply-and-demand balance for real assets and commodities. Right now, this lens shows the strongest signal of the four. It is telling us that real-asset and commodity supplies are constrained and getting more so[6]. That matches what the copper data shows. The other three lenses give us context. The plumbing of the money markets looks normal. The longer-term quality of currencies is showing some weakness, which matters more for gold and silver than copper. Financial markets generally are showing some valuation risk that we are monitoring[6]. When we put the four lenses together, the picture is this. The environment is calm. The scarcity signal is strong. The market structure signal is something we watch carefully. None of this changes the fundamental work we do, which is to manage risk across each strategy according to its mandate. |
The Role Copper Would Play Where It May Be Held
| The Analytical Read Where copper may be held within some of our KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, the role of the position would be scarcity exposure. The form of exposure would be physically-backed rather than through producer equities or futures contracts. This is consistent with our preference, where the role is scarcity rather than industrial-cycle exposure, for vehicles that hold the underlying metal directly. Copper is materially more volatile than gold and meaningfully more volatile than silver. Where these metals may be held, position sizing is the lever we use to manage the contribution to overall portfolio volatility within each strategy's risk mandate, with larger relative weights appropriate for our more growth-oriented strategy mandates and smaller or zero positions appropriate for our more conservative mandates. The KFSC Risk Managed Strategies are six discretionary macro-aware strategy mandates: Preservation of Capital, Conservative, Conservative Growth, Moderate, Moderate Growth, and Aggressive Growth. A client's suitability for any particular strategy is assessed before investment, at the time the advisor and client select the strategy that matches the client's individual circumstances. Once invested, position decisions within the strategy are governed by that strategy's risk mandate, applied at the discretion of the advisor and the firm. This commentary describes what we currently see and how we read it. It does not commit the firm to any future action. |
| In Plain English Inside the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies you are invested in, copper may or may not appear, depending on the risk mandate of your particular strategy. Where copper may be held, the form would be a real asset, meaning physical copper exposure, similar to how we approach other metals. Copper is more volatile than gold. Where copper may be held in a strategy, the size of the position is the lever we use to control how much that volatility shows up. More growth-oriented strategies can carry larger copper positions. More conservative strategies carry smaller positions, or none at all. This is what we mean when we say models diagnose, advisors decide, and portfolios implement. The framework produces a diagnostic; we, as your advisors, read it and decide what to do about it within the rules of your specific strategy. The portfolio reflects that decision. Whether your strategy holds copper today and whether the size of any position changes in the future are decisions made within the risk mandate of the specific strategy you are invested in. The match between your individual circumstances and that strategy was made when you and your advisor selected the strategy you are in, from the six KFSC Risk Managed Strategies (Preservation of Capital, Conservative, Conservative Growth, Moderate, Moderate Growth, and Aggressive Growth). |
A note on what the data does and does not contain. The files used for this commentary do not include end-use sector data (electric vehicles, electrical grid, construction, solar, data centers), country-level forward demand forecasts, or detailed cost-curve data for mine production. Where the commentary references these areas, it is from widely-documented public sources external to the LSEG and World Bureau of Metal Statistics files used. The data we do have is sufficient for the diagnostic claims made above. We have flagged where it is not sufficient for a fuller account. |
SOURCES · ATTRIBUTION POLICYEvery quantitative claim above ties to one of the following sources.Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. All forecasts referenced in this commentary, including price, supply, demand, and market balance forecasts, are sourced to third-party analyst consensus published by LSEG / Refinitiv. Our role is to analyze, contextualize, and apply the diagnostic readings from our internal frameworks to client portfolios. Forecasting future market data is not part of our analytical methodology.
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Compliance Disclosures & Risk WarningsThis commentary is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or as individualized investment advice. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of Keaney Financial Services Corp. as of the date of this commentary. They are subject to change at any time based on market conditions and other factors, and may or may not come to pass. The KFSC Macro Regime Model and the KFSC Asset Role Registry are proprietary analytical components within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System. Their analysis is based on historical data and a structured evaluation of current conditions. These tools are diagnostic only and do not guarantee future results or protect against loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No statement in this commentary, including conceptual frameworks, analogies, or descriptive language, should be interpreted as:
All investment decisions remain subject to advisor discretion and individual client circumstances. Framework & Risk Management DisclosureThe KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, including its KFSC Macro Regime Model, KFSC Asset Role Registry, and four diagnostic frameworks (Monetary Integrity Framework, Liquidity Transmission Framework, Strategic Scarcity Framework, Market Structure Framework), provides analytical tools used to support advisor decision-making. These tools are not automated systems, do not predict future market outcomes, and do not dictate trades or portfolio actions. All portfolio decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor based on their interpretation of available data, client objectives, and prevailing market conditions. Investing in commodities, including industrial metals, involves elevated risks, including but not limited to: political and geopolitical instability, economic and monetary system changes, currency fluctuations, market liquidity conditions, and rapid price volatility. Copper in particular is a higher-volatility asset than gold and is sensitive to global industrial demand cycles, the concentration of demand in a small number of consuming countries, futures-market positioning, and global liquidity conditions. These factors may result in significant fluctuations in portfolio value and may not be suitable for all investors. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Asset allocation, diversification, and risk management strategies are designed to manage risk but do not guarantee profits or protect against losses. Forward-Looking Statements DisclosureThis commentary contains forward-looking statements and interpretive analysis regarding copper price behavior, global supply and demand balance, exchange-reported stocks dynamics across the London Metal Exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the United States Commodity Exchange, and Shanghai Metal Market bonded warehouses, country-level consumption concentration, regional Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes, speculative positioning in copper futures, third-party analyst consensus forecasts, and macroeconomic developments. These statements are based on current observations, historical comparisons, and analytical interpretation of available data. Historical comparisons referenced in this material are provided for context only. While certain patterns have been observed across prior commodity, manufacturing, and positioning cycles, there is no assurance that current conditions will follow similar trajectories. Outcomes may differ materially due to changes in monetary policy, geopolitical developments, industrial demand, market structure, liquidity conditions, mining and refined production output, regulatory environment, and other unforeseen factors. Any discussion of current market behavior, including references to exchange-reported stocks composition shifts, geographic relocation of metal into United States warehouses, manufacturing activity synchronization across regions, speculative positioning extremes, third-party analyst consensus forecasts, or framework-identified regime dynamics, reflects interpretive analysis and should not be construed as a definitive explanation of causation or as a prediction of future results. References to plausible causes for the COMEX stocks build (including tariff positioning, arbitrage, and specific industrial buyer activity), to global manufacturing synchronization, or to other macroeconomic factors are provided to illustrate the framework's diagnostic reasoning. They are not predictions about specific events occurring or not occurring, and they do not represent a definitive view that any specific cause is presently operative. References to framework outputs, including regime classifications, framework states, and asset role categories, are diagnostic and do not imply certainty about outcomes or their timing. References to "hold," "trim," "buy," "sell," or related portfolio terminology in this commentary describe how data informs the firm's diagnostic read and are not specific recommendations to any individual client. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. All forecasts referenced in this commentary, including price, supply, demand, and market balance forecasts, are sourced to third-party analyst consensus published by LSEG / Refinitiv. The firm's role is to analyze and contextualize third-party data and forecasts within its internal frameworks. Forecasting future market data is not part of the firm's analytical methodology. Allocation & Positioning DisclosureThis commentary is not intended as investment advice for the general public. It is specifically prepared for clients invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and may not apply to other investments managed by advisors at Keaney Financial Services Corp. outside of these strategies. The KFSC Risk Managed Strategies are discretionary, dynamic, and adaptive. Portfolio positioning, allocations, and exposures may change at any time without notice due to evolving market conditions and the advisor's judgment. These strategies are six discretionary macro-aware mandates: Preservation of Capital, Conservative, Conservative Growth, Moderate, Moderate Growth, and Aggressive Growth. Each strategy carries its own risk profile, volatility expectations, and portfolio construction approach. Suitability of any particular strategy for an individual client is assessed prior to investment, at the time the advisor and client select the strategy that matches the client's individual circumstances. While the macroeconomic themes and framework outputs described in this commentary are derived from the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System and inform the firm's broader outlook, the specific asset class allocations, position sizes, and underlying holdings may differ materially across strategies, consistent with each strategy's risk mandate. Methodology & Data DisclosureThe analysis presented is processed within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, which pulls data via API integration from three external sources: London Stock Exchange Group Workspace (Refinitiv), which provides market data including prices, supply and demand, exchange-reported stocks, positioning, regional Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes, and analyst consensus forecasts; Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), which provides macroeconomic indicators including interest rates, inflation indices, monetary aggregates, and industrial production; and Archival Federal Reserve Economic Data (ALFRED), which provides point-in-time historical vintages of FRED data. Keaney Financial Services Corp. does not generate underlying market or economic data; the firm's analytical role is the diagnostic processing of externally-sourced data and the production of regime classifications and framework readings as analytical output. Calculations referenced in this commentary include: China's share of global refined copper consumption (57.0% in 2024) calculated as Chinese consumption of 15,333 thousand tonnes divided by world total consumption of 26,924 thousand tonnes from World Bureau of Metal Statistics April 2026 publication; the same calculation for 2017 produces 50.7% share (11,790 thousand tonnes Chinese consumption divided by 23,237 thousand tonnes world total); total reported exchange stocks growth from 222 thousand tonnes (year-end 2023) to 822 thousand tonnes (year-end 2025), summed across London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, the United States Commodity Exchange, and Shanghai Metal Market bonded warehouses; the United States Commodity Exchange copper stocks growth from 19 thousand tonnes (year-end 2023) to 498 thousand tonnes (year-end 2025), a ratio of approximately 26 times; the global refined copper production compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.4% calculated from World Bureau of Metal Statistics monthly series, from 1,369 thousand tonnes per month in February 2006 to 2,204 thousand tonnes per month in February 2026; annual market balance of plus 516 thousand tonnes for 2025 calculated as production of 27,341 minus consumption of 26,825 thousand tonnes from the same source; the LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus forecast of plus 50 thousand tonnes market balance for 2028, used solely to illustrate the forward analyst consensus trajectory and not as a prediction by the firm. All data is believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. Research, Data & Technology DisclosureResearch, analysis, and data referenced in this material are developed through the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, which integrates multiple data sources, analytical inputs, and research processes. These sources may include contributions from non-affiliated third-party providers, including market data vendors, macroeconomic analysts, economists, and other research organizations. Such sources are believed to be reliable but are not independently verified by Keaney Financial Services Corp. and are subject to revision. As part of the research and analytical process, advanced computational tools and artificial intelligence systems may be utilized to assist in the organization, synthesis, and interpretation of data. These tools are used to enhance efficiency and support analysis within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, but they do not independently generate investment recommendations, do not make investment decisions, and do not replace the advisor's judgment. All outputs are subject to human review, interpretation, and oversight. No amount of research, data analysis, or technological support can eliminate the inherent risks of investing or guarantee any specific outcome. Specific Securities DisclosureThis commentary does not name, recommend, or specifically reference any individual security, exchange-traded product, trust, or financial instrument. Any security held in client portfolios is selected on the basis of advisor due diligence and the risk mandate of the specific KFSC Risk Managed Strategy within which the client is invested, not on the basis of the analytical observations made in this commentary. Reference to general categories of exposure (such as physically-backed copper vehicles) is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security. Historical Event Selection & Dataset DisclosureThe data presented in this material is sourced from London Stock Exchange Group Workspace (Refinitiv) and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics via LSEG / Refinitiv, and is analyzed within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System. Annual copper production, consumption, market balance, and exchange-reported stocks shown in the charts titled Global Copper Production, Consumption, and Annual Price, Annual Copper Market Balance and London Metal Exchange Three-Month Price, Reported Copper Stocks by Exchange, and Global Copper Production and Consumption Growth are from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics April 2026 publication via LSEG / Refinitiv. Quarterly forecast values shown in the chart titled Quarterly London Metal Exchange Copper Price with Forecast Range are from the LSEG / Refinitiv analyst consensus panel, May 2026 release. Monthly global refined copper production shown in the chart titled Global Refined Copper Production, Monthly is from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics monthly series via LSEG / Refinitiv, covering February 2006 through February 2026. Country-level consumption shown in the chart titled Global Refined Copper Consumption by Country is from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics Copper Workbook, April 2026 publication. Regional Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes shown in the chart titled Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index by Region, and the year-over-year comparison shown in the chart titled Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and London Metal Exchange Copper Price, Year-over-Year, are from LSEG / Refinitiv. Speculative positioning data shown in the chart titled Speculative Positioning in United States Copper Futures is from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report via LSEG / Refinitiv. This commentary does not include historical event selection, drawdown analysis, or comparison with prior crisis episodes. References to prior cycle features (the 2009 copper price trough, the February 2025 peak of $12,095 per tonne, the 2021 and 2022 deficit years) are observational data points within continuous time series, not selected discrete historical events. All current-period figures are as of May 9, 2026 and are subject to revision as new data becomes available. Statistical Interpretation & Non-Predictive Use DisclosureThe statistical measures presented, including production and consumption quantities, market balance figures, exchange-reported stocks levels, country share percentages, compound annual growth rates, and speculative positioning figures, are derived from observational data sourced from London Stock Exchange Group Workspace and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics and processed within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System. They are provided for descriptive and contextual purposes only. These measures do not represent expected outcomes, do not imply probability of recurrence, and do not constitute forecasts or projections. References to prior cycle features (the 2009 trough, the 2024 inflection in consumption growth, the February 2025 cycle peak) reflect observational comparisons under prior conditions, not equivalence with the current setup. There is no assurance that current market conditions will follow similar trajectories. All forward-looking interpretations remain subject to uncertainty and advisor discretion. Advisor Discretion StatementAll investment decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor. Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement. Business Entity DisclosureKeaney Financial Services Corp. provides insurance and financial services. Ameritas Investment Company, LLC (AIC), Member FINRA / SIPC, provides securities and investments. Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC (AAS) provides investment advisory services. AIC and AAS are not affiliated with Keaney Financial Services Corp. Ernesto Keaney is an Investment Adviser Representative of Keaney Financial Services Corp., available through the Ameritas Wealth Platform. |
Models Diagnose.·Advisors Decide.·Portfolios Implement. KFSC Commentary | May 2026 | Copper Keaney Financial Services Corp |