A month ago the headlines said gold was falling. This week they say it is near a multi-week high. Both are true, and on their own neither tells you much. Price is the loud part. Common reasons investors or central banks cite to own gold are the quiet part, and they are the part that actually matters. This commentary keeps the two separate: what the price did this year, what it has done over the long run, and why neither has changed the job gold does in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. If you would rather watch than read, our financial commentary video walks through the same numbers and explains why each one matters, or does not.
This commentary is provided solely for clients and prospective clients of Keaney Financial Services Corp who are invested in, or are considering, the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. Nothing in this commentary is investment advice.
The grounds on which we hold gold in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, as this commentary documents, are that gold has historically preserved purchasing power over the long term. That has not been linear or in a straight line. In our own analysis, gold has shown significant volatility in the short term and over longer stretches, such as 1980 to 1999 or 2011 to 2021, where a conversion from gold back to dollars would have resulted in fewer dollars, as the charts below show. Since August 1971 gold has multiplied purchasing power about 12 times over, while the same money left idle kept about 12 cents on the dollar as of August 2026 [1][5]. Among the more conservative buyers in the world, central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter, a record for any second quarter, and China’s central bank has added for 20 months in a row, bringing its holdings to 2,346 tonnes, about 8 percent of its foreign reserves [3][9]. Gold has no issuer, no balance sheet and nothing to default on. Its failure mode is price, not insolvency.
What’s in the news about gold
Why the headlines changed, and what to make of them.
Gold is back in the headlines. After drifting near $4,000 an ounce through the summer, it closed at $4,393 on August 11. That is 10.7 percent above its July 16 low of $3,970, and 8.7 percent above its July 31 close of $4,041 [1][8]. A Reuters market columnist described it as one of gold’s strongest months so far this century [8]. Much of the move came during Asian trading hours [10].
A few things lined up at once. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in what markets read as a ‘dovish’ hold, employment data came in soft, and the U.S. dollar weakened, a mix that tends to support gold [8]. Renewed geopolitical tension, including between the United States and Iran, added to the backdrop [8]. Pulling the other way, longer-term Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs, which usually works against gold [8].
The louder story is who is buying. The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought about 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, more than five times the first quarter and a record for any second quarter, for roughly 345 tonnes across the first half. The same report is careful about that half-year figure: at about 345 tonnes it was the weakest first half since 2022, when it was 241 tonnes, because heavy first-quarter selling by Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan pulled the year-to-date total down [3]. China’s central bank has kept buying as well. The World Gold Council reports its official gold holdings have risen for 20 months in a row, the longest streak on record, and now stand at about 8 percent of the country’s foreign reserves [9], and its July purchase was the largest in 33 months [10]. A World Gold Council survey found a record share of central banks planning to add gold over the coming year [8].
This is where we stay careful, and where the same sources do too. As reported by Reuters, an International Monetary Fund paper this summer called gold ‘highly volatile,’ with only ‘conditional’ hedging benefits, and urged central banks to treat it as a high-risk reserve asset rather than a sure thing [8]. The World Gold Council, even while reporting record buying, expects central-bank demand in 2026 to finish below 2025, and describes reserve managers as treating gold as a long-term diversifier, not a short-term trade [3]. And with the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield at 2.43 percent on August 11, 2026, holding gold, which pays no interest, carries a real cost [4].
Closer to home, some U.S. investors moved the other way earlier this year, trimming their gold ETF holdings. The World Gold Council attributes most of that to profit-taking and rebalancing after gold’s strong run, rather than a loss of confidence, and notes that North American investors have treated price dips as chances to add [11].
So the news cuts both ways, which is exactly the point. The reasons careful buyers such as central banks hold gold, diversification and a hedge against currency and geopolitical strain, are steady and slow to change. The price and the headlines are neither. The rest of this commentary keeps those two things apart.
Gold by the Numbers
A quick snapshot in figures, August 1971 to 2026.
$4,393
Closing price, August 11, 2026
+1.5%
vs the Jan 2 open of $4,330
+10.7%
vs the Jul 16 low of $3,970
−18.6%
vs the Jan 28 high of $5,399
All four figures use LSEG daily closing prices for gold spot (XAU=). These are changes in the price of gold, not the return of any account. Historical market-price changes are shown for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as expected performance or investment results. [1]
Gold’s price today, compared with past turning points.
about 125×
Since the Nixon Shock (Aug 15, 1971)
about 15×
Since the dot-com peak (March 10, 2000)
about 2.7×
Since COVID began (March 11, 2020)
Each figure compares gold’s price on the date shown with its August 11, 2026 close of $4,393. Reference prices: $35 on August 15, 1971 (the official price at the Nixon shock); about $289 on March 10, 2000 (the dot-com peak); about $1,635 on March 11, 2020 (the start of the COVID pandemic). These are changes in gold’s price only, not the return of any account, and past changes do not predict future results. [1]
Gold’s price change over 1, 3, 10, 20, and 30 years, and since 1971.
+31%
1 year (since Aug 11, 2025)
+130%
3 years (since Aug 11, 2023)
+228%
10 years (since Aug 11, 2016)
+595%
20 years (since Aug 11, 2006)
+1,034%
30 years (since Aug 9, 1996)
+12,452%
Since the Nixon Shock (Aug 15, 1971)
Change in gold’s price from each start date to the August 11, 2026 close of $4,393. Start prices: about $3,344 (Aug 11, 2025), $1,913 (Aug 11, 2023), $1,338 (Aug 11, 2016), $632 (Aug 11, 2006), $387.40 (Aug 9, 1996), and $35 (the official price at the Nixon shock, Aug 15, 1971). These are changes in gold’s price only, not the return of any account or investment, and past performance does not predict future results. [1]
The other side of the story: how bumpy the ride has been.
15.2%
Typical year’s ups and downs (volatility)
−13.8%
Typical year’s worst dip (median)
−69.8%
Deepest drop ($835 on Jan 18, 1980 to $252.30 on Aug 25, 1999)
9.5 months
Typical recovery after a drop of 10% or more (median of 13)
+126.5%
Best calendar year (1979)
−31.6%
Worst calendar year (1981)
Based on daily gold closing prices from March 1968 to August 11, 2026. Volatility here is realized, measured from price history rather than from options: it is the median of each calendar year’s annualized daily volatility across 59 years. A drawdown is a fall from a prior high: the typical figure is the median of each year’s largest fall, and the deepest was 69.8 percent, from $835 on January 18, 1980 to $252.30 on August 25, 1999. Recovery time is the median across 13 episodes of the time taken to regain a prior high after a fall of more than 10 percent. Best and worst are calendar-year price changes. These describe gold’s price history only, are not the return of any account, and do not predict future results. [1]
The year so far
A round trip, not a straight line.
Gold spot (XAU=), daily close, January 1 to August 11, 2026. The dashed line marks the January 2 year open. [1]
Gold opened the year at $4,330 on January 2. It then peaked at $5,399 on January 28, fell to a summer low of $3,970 on July 16, a decline of about 26.5 percent, then recovered to $4,393 on August 11, up 10.7 percent from that low. Every price in this commentary is a daily closing price, which is the cleaner measure; intraday highs and lows differ.
One point is easy to miss in the noise: measured against that January 2 open, gold is up only about 1.5 percent for the year. Most of 2026 has been a large round trip back toward where it started.
It also helps to step back from this year entirely. Gold’s role in the strategies is measured in decades, not weeks, so the more useful question is what its dollar price has done over long spans.
Seen that way, this year’s round trip is a small wiggle on a long climb in dollar terms. The honest other half is that the climb has not been a straight line. After its 1980 peak, gold fell hard and stayed down for close to twenty years, losing 69.8 percent of its dollar value, from $835 on January 18, 1980 to $252.30 on August 25, 1999, before it recovered.
Gold spot (XAU=), daily close, 1975 to 2005. The two marked points are the January 18, 1980 peak of $835 and the August 25, 1999 low of $252.30. [1]
That drop was not a mystery, and it is worth understanding. To break the high inflation of the 1970s, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to levels that look almost unbelievable today. Short-term Treasury bills reached 17.14 percent on December 11, 1980 [6]. What mattered most for gold is what came next: those rates were held well above inflation for years. Through the early 1980s, short-term bills paid roughly three to five percentage points more than inflation, year after year [5][6]. Gold pays no interest, so when safe, interest-paying choices reward you that richly even after inflation, there is little reason to hold it. Money moved toward those rates, and gold stayed out of favor for close to two decades. It is the same pressure this commentary describes elsewhere, in its most extreme form.
Long term is where gold’s store-of-value role tends to show up, and long term also includes stretches, like that one, where the price falls and stays down for years. This is history, not a promise about what comes next.
A decline tells us the price changed. Our framework sections tell us whether the reason for holding gold changed. The rest of this commentary looks at both: what came before, what changed, and the current read.
What supports gold, and what is pressuring it
Two lists, side by side.
What supports gold
· central-bank demand
· reserve diversification
· inflation and debt backdrop
· limited supply response
What is pressuring gold
· positive real yields
· liquidity pressure
· profit-taking
· ETF and futures positioning
· market structure
The 10-year real yield is positive, which is a headwind for gold because gold pays no interest. We use this as a market signal, not as a recommendation to buy Treasury securities, TIPS, TIPS ETFs, or any other product.
Speculators moved back, but are not crowded
Traders re-engaged off the spring low.
Gold speculative net position (long minus short, thousands of contracts) against gold price, weekly, 2018 to August 4, 2026. [1][2]
The clearest sign that traders re-engaged is in futures positioning. The net position (long minus short) fell to about 285 thousand contracts at the late-April low, then climbed back to 411.8 thousand as of August 4, the highest reading since January. Context matters: that same net position stood near 433 thousand at the January high, and the multi-year peak in this series was roughly 908 thousand back in 2019. Re-engaged is accurate. Crowded is not.
What central banks are doing with their reserves
The slow buyer that keeps buying.
A central bank holds gold as part of its reserves, a country’s savings account. Those choices move slowly and say a lot. The World Gold Council reported central-bank net buying of about 289 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, rebounding after a softer first quarter, for roughly 345 tonnes in the first half. Poland was the largest single buyer in the quarter, adding 51 tonnes to reach 632 tonnes, and the People’s Bank of China added 33 tonnes, its largest quarterly addition since the fourth quarter of 2023. These are the World Gold Council’s figures, as of June 30, 2026. [3]
Central-bank net gold purchases by quarter, in tonnes, from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. [3]
What $100,000 really bought: three rulers
Dollars, homes, and gold are all measuring sticks.
The charts here can look dramatic, so here is how to read them calmly. Each one starts with the same $100,000 and follows it over many years. None is a scorecard for picking a winner. They show something quieter: what happens to money over long stretches, and how the answer changes depending on the ruler you measure with.
Start with the ruler itself. We price everything in dollars and treat the dollar as if it never changes. It does. By the cost-of-living measure, the same basket of goods costs about 8.2 times what it did in August 1971, so to buy what $100,000 bought then you now need about $818,400. Measured in homes the change is larger still: the median newly built U.S. home sold for about $25,300 in the third quarter of 1971 and about $410,700 in the second quarter of 2026, so the same $100,000 went from buying about four of them to buying roughly a quarter of one. The dollar did not stand still. The ruler got shorter.
What the same basket of goods costs, from August 1971 to July 2026, using the Consumer Price Index. Index values: 40.800 in August 1971 and 333.918 in July 2026. [5]
The following examples are hypothetical illustrations based on historical market data. They do not represent actual client accounts, investment results, or any KFSC strategy, and are provided solely for educational purposes.
Before adjusting for anything, here is the plain-dollar picture. These first two charts show what $100,000 would have grown to if it had simply been held in gold, or in a money market earning interest, from three different starting points.
$100,000 held in gold from three starting points, in plain dollars, to August 11, 2026. The 1971 line uses the market price then, about $44. [1]
$100,000 held in a money market, the 3-month Treasury bill rate reinvested, from the same three starting points. [6]
$100,000 from August 1971, shown in today’s purchasing power using the Consumer Price Index. Educational illustration, not investment performance. [1][5][6]
The inflation-adjusted chart takes that same $100,000 and shows what it could actually buy over time, in today’s dollars. Money left idle kept its number but lost most of its power, ending near twelve cents on the dollar. Cash in a money market, earning interest along the way, roughly kept pace with rising prices and stayed a little ahead. Gold grew its purchasing power over the full span, but not in a straight line: for about two decades after 1980 it lost real value and stayed down.
The same $100,000, measured as the number of median-priced newly built U.S. homes it could buy. Newly built homes are one category that rose faster than the general cost of living. [1][6][7]
The second chart measures the same three choices in newly built homes instead of dollars, and because those homes rose faster than the general cost of living, this is the hardest ruler of the three. Idle cash fell to about a quarter of one home. Even the interest-earning money market slipped from about four homes to under three. Gold rose from about four homes to about twenty-five, though with the same large swings.
The honest read cuts both ways. Cash almost never falls, but in the low-rate years it quietly lost ground to rising prices and to homes. Gold grew over these long spans, but it swings hard and has had its own lost decades. Neither is safer in every sense, and neither wins in every sense. They do different jobs.
The same $100,000, on one page
Each figure is a multiple of the $100,000 you started with. A number below 1x means it lost purchasing power against that ruler.
Starting point and choice
In dollars
After inflation (CPI)
In newly built homes
Held since 1971
Gold
101x
12x
6.2x
Cash / money market
11x
1.4x
0.69x
Idle cash (in a drawer)
1.0x
0.12x
0.06x
Held since 2000
Gold
15x
7.7x
6.1x
Cash / money market
1.7x
0.84x
0.67x
Idle cash (in a drawer)
1.0x
0.51x
0.40x
Held since 2020
Gold
2.9x
2.2x
2.3x
Cash / money market
1.2x
0.93x
0.97x
Idle cash (in a drawer)
1.0x
0.77x
0.80x
One pattern is worth noticing. The rulers agree more in recent years and disagree more over long ones. Since 2020 the cost of living and home prices moved almost together, so the columns look alike. Since 1971 they are far apart. The longer the horizon, the more the ruler you choose changes the story.
A few reminders while you look. These are educational illustrations of the metal price, a short-term cash rate, and home prices - not the return of any account, and not a prediction, and before any fees, costs, or taxes. One honest footnote: U.S. individuals could not legally own gold until the end of 1974, so the 1971 gold start is history for comparison, not something a person could have done. The point in a single line: dollars, homes, and gold are all measuring sticks, each telling a slightly different story about the same wealth. That is why gold is held as one part of a strategy, sized to the risk option a client selected - a second ruler to hold up against the dollar and a long-term store of value, not a bet that its price keeps rising.
What this means for a KFSC client invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies
Our goal is to be transparent in our thought process and educate our clients.
As of the data reviewed, our advisors’ current strategy-level read is Maintain: the decline currently reads as a correction with structural support still present, not a confirmed regime break. This read is diagnostic and subject to change as new data comes in.
Gold’s structural role remains supported within the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. Position sizing varies by selected risk option, across the six mandates from Preservation of Capital to Aggressive Growth, and is set at the strategy and model level, not adjusted account by account.
A period like this can be a useful check-in point. If recent swings feel larger than expected, or if goals or comfort level have changed, that is worth reviewing with an advisor. The goal is not to react to one price move. The goal is to make sure the strategy selected, or being considered, still fits the level of risk a client is willing to live with over time.
Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. We measure, we say what we see, and your advisor decides what, if anything, it means for you.
This commentary was prepared on August 13, 2026, using market data through August 11, 2026. References in order of appearance. Every data figure traces to a source below. Percentage and window computations were performed by Keaney Financial Services Corp directly from the exported series listed here.
[1] LSEG Workspace. (2026, August 11). Daily series: gold spot (XAU=), US 10-year benchmark yield (US10YT=RR), dollar index (.DXY), USD/JPY (JPY=), USD/CHF (CHF=), 1968 to August 11, 2026 [Data export]. Cited for: the 2026 price path, the January 28 high, the July 16 low, the August 11 close, the long-run price history behind the volatility, drawdown and recovery figures, and the ounce comparison. The $35 figure is the official U.S. gold price before August 15, 1971.
[2] LSEG Workspace. (2026, August 10). Gold speculative positioning: net, long, and short, thousands of contracts, weekly, 2018 to August 4, 2026 [Data export]. Cited for: the net position path, the 411.8 thousand reading, the spring low near 285 thousand, and the 2019 peak near 908 thousand.
[3] World Gold Council. (2026, July). Gold Demand Trends, second quarter 2026 (data as of June 30, 2026) [Report]. Cited for: central-bank net buying of 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter, a record for any second quarter, and about 345 tonnes in the first half, which the report notes was the weakest first half since 2022 (Table 1 and the central banks section).
[4] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (DFII10), daily [Data set]. Cited for: the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield of 2.43 percent on August 11, 2026.
[5] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCNS), monthly, 1913 to July 2026 [Data set]. Cited for: the cost-of-living comparison and the inflation-adjusted $100,000 illustration.
[6] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. 3-Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate, Discount Basis (DTB3), daily, 1954 to August 11, 2026 [Data set]. Cited for: the money-market cash illustration, using the rate reinvested.
[7] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS), quarterly, 1963 to 2026 Q2 [Data set]. Published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development in the New Residential Sales release; the series covers newly built houses sold. Cited for: the third-quarter 1971 median of $25,300, the second-quarter 2026 median of $410,700, and the homes ruler.
[8] McGeever, J. (2026, August 13). Central banks spearhead renewed gold rush [Opinion column]. Reuters. Cited for: the early-August price move and its market and geopolitical drivers, the Deutsche Bank and World Gold Council survey references, China’s July reserve purchase, and the International Monetary Fund’s caution on gold. Opinions are the author’s; figures are attributed within the column to the World Gold Council, Deutsche Bank, and the IMF.
[9] World Gold Council. (2026, July 14). China gold market update: June concludes a divided H1 [Report]. Cited for: the People’s Bank of China’s 20-month streak of monthly gold purchases, the level of its official gold holdings of about 2,346 tonnes, and gold’s share of China’s official foreign-exchange reserves.
[10] World Gold Council. (2026, August 10). Weekly Markets Monitor [Report]. Cited for: gold’s early-August weekly gain, the People’s Bank of China’s July purchase as the largest in 33 months, and the Asian-hours contribution to the move.
[11] World Gold Council. (2026). Gold Demand Trends: US Focus, Q2 2026 [Report]. Cited for: U.S.-listed gold ETF outflows in the first half of 2026 and their attribution to profit-taking and rebalancing.
Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Third-party statistics are shown as published on their retrieval dates and are subject to later revision by the organizations that produce them.
1. Compliance Disclosures and Risk Warnings
This commentary is published by Keaney Financial Services Corp for educational and informational purposes only. It is a diagnostic read of the 2026 gold price move, long-run gold price history, and the monetary backdrop. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, or a guarantee of any outcome. Past performance is not indicative of future results and does not guarantee future returns. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Markets can be volatile, and values can fluctuate due to economic, geopolitical, regulatory, and other factors. Readers should consult their own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making investment decisions. Keaney Financial Services Corp and its representatives do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any third-party data referenced herein. Precious metals risk: gold is subject to significant price volatility, pays no interest or dividends, and can lose value. Strategy Holdings Disclosure: references to gold’s role apply solely to the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and not to any other investments held within Keaney Financial Services Corp. or outside these discretionary managed accounts. This commentary is intended solely for clients and prospective clients of Keaney Financial Services Corp who are invested in, or are considering, the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, and nothing in it is investment advice.
2. Framework and Risk Management Disclosure
The KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, including its KFSC Macro Regime Model and four diagnostic frameworks (the Monetary Integrity Framework, the Liquidity Transmission Framework, the Strategic Scarcity Framework, and the Market Structure Framework), provides analytical tools used to support advisor decision-making. These tools are not automated systems, do not predict future market outcomes, and do not dictate trades or portfolio actions. All portfolio decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor based on their interpretation of available data, client objectives, and prevailing market conditions. Investing involves risk, including political and geopolitical instability, changes in economic and monetary systems, currency fluctuations, market liquidity conditions, and rapid price volatility. These factors may result in significant fluctuations in portfolio value and may not be suitable for all investors. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Asset allocation, diversification, and risk management strategies are designed to manage risk but do not guarantee profits or protect against losses.
3. Forward-Looking Statements Disclosure
This commentary contains interpretive analysis of gold prices and the monetary conditions around them, written in clear, everyday language for a general reader. These statements are based on current observations, publicly-reported information, and analytical interpretation. There is no assurance that current conditions will continue or follow any particular path. Any discussion of current conditions reflects interpretive analysis and is not a definitive explanation of causation or a prediction of future results. Nothing in this commentary predicts any future gold price, central-bank action, or market outcome. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Where this commentary references forward-looking expectations, those references are intended as interpretive context drawn from publicly reported third-party sources. Forecasting future market data is not part of the firm’s analytical methodology.
4. Allocation and Positioning Disclosure
This commentary is not intended as investment advice for the general public. It is specifically prepared for clients invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and may not apply to other investments managed by advisors at Keaney Financial Services Corp. outside of these strategies. The KFSC Risk Managed Strategies are discretionary, dynamic, and adaptive. Portfolio positioning, allocations, and exposures may change at any time without notice due to evolving market conditions and the advisor’s judgment. These strategies are implemented across six distinct mandates on a spectrum from Preservation of Capital through Aggressive Growth (Preservation of Capital, Conservative, Conservative Growth, Moderate, Moderate Growth, and Aggressive Growth), each with its own risk profile, volatility expectations, and portfolio construction approach. Suitability of any particular strategy for an individual client is assessed prior to investment. While the macroeconomic themes described in this commentary are derived from the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System and inform the firm’s broader outlook, the specific asset class allocations, position sizes, and underlying holdings may differ materially across strategies, consistent with each strategy’s risk mandate.
5. Methodology and Data Disclosure
The market readings in this commentary are drawn from third-party data, each cited in the Sources. The daily gold, yield, and currency series and the weekly gold positioning series were exported from LSEG Workspace, with data through August 11, 2026 and August 4, 2026 respectively. Central-bank demand figures are from the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends for the second quarter of 2026 (data as of June 30, 2026). Consumer price, Treasury bill, inflation-indexed Treasury yield and median new-home price data are from FRED. All percentage changes, window changes, and comparisons were computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp directly from those exported series; each series’ span and frequency are stated in the Sources. All figures are third-party statistics, not measurements of any investment’s return; nothing here describes the return of any account, which would be reduced by fees, transaction costs, and taxes. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not originate underlying market or government data and contextualizes third-party data within the KFSC Macro Regime Model. All data is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed and may be revised, restated, delayed, or estimated. Produced by Keaney Financial Services Corp., prepared August 13, 2026.
6. Research, Data, and Technology Disclosure
Research, analysis, and data referenced in this material are developed through the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, which integrates multiple data sources, analytical inputs, and research processes. These sources may include contributions from non-affiliated third-party providers, such as market data vendors (e.g., LSEG), statistical agencies, central banks, and news organizations. Such sources are believed to be reliable but are not independently verified by Keaney Financial Services Corp. and may be revised. As part of the research and analytical process, advanced computational tools and artificial intelligence systems may be used to assist in organizing, synthesizing, and interpreting data. These tools support analysis within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, but they do not independently generate investment recommendations, make investment decisions, or replace the advisor’s judgment. All outputs are subject to human review, interpretation, and oversight. No amount of research, data analysis, or technological support can eliminate the inherent risks of investing or guarantee any specific outcome.
7. Specific Securities Disclosure
This commentary does not name, recommend, or specifically reference any individual security, exchange-traded product, fund, or financial instrument. References to gold are to the metal and its market price as a macroeconomic construct, not to any specific issuer or investment vehicle. Any exposure held in client portfolios is selected based on advisor due diligence and the risk mandate of the specific KFSC Risk Managed Strategies in which the client is invested. No portion of this commentary should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security or asset.
8. Historical Event Selection and Dataset Disclosure
The price information referenced in this material is drawn from the LSEG Workspace gold spot (XAU) series identified in the Sources. The 2026 price path, the prior-year comparisons, and the long-run ounce illustration are derived directly from that continuous series; they are descriptive periods within a single series, not discrete events selected for backtesting or trend extrapolation. Past patterns are not a reliable predictor of future patterns. All figures are as of the dates and reference periods specified and are subject to revision as new information becomes available.
9. Statistical Interpretation and Non-Predictive Use Disclosure
All figures presented, including price changes, positioning levels, peak-to-trough moves, and the ounce comparison, are drawn directly from the data identified in the Sources and are provided for descriptive and contextual purposes only. These measures do not represent expected outcomes, imply the probability of recurrence, or constitute forecasts or projections. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not claim that any condition described will continue, reverse, strengthen, or weaken. All forward-looking interpretations remain subject to uncertainty and advisor discretion.
10. Advisor Discretion Statement
All investment decisions are advisor-led and implemented through the applicable KFSC Risk Managed Strategy risk option. Clients select a risk option before investing, and position sizing is determined at the strategy/model level. Our advisors do not make individualized gold-position changes for each client within the same strategy model. Advisors may review whether a client’s selected risk option remains appropriate based on risk tolerance, objectives, time horizon, liquidity needs, and changes in financial circumstances. Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
11. Business Entity Disclosure
Keaney Financial Services Corp. provides insurance and financial services. Ameritas Investment Company, LLC (AIC), Member FINRA / SIPC, provides securities and investments. Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC (AAS) provides investment advisory services. AIC and AAS are not affiliated with Keaney Financial Services Corp. Ernesto Keaney and Emmelis Keaney are Investment Adviser Representatives of Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC. Accounts are managed on the Ameritas Wealth Platform.
Produced by Keaney Financial Services Corp · August 13, 2026
▪ KFSC MACRO INTELLIGENCE · MONTHLY GOLD UPDATE · AUGUST 2026
A Monthly Gold Read, August 2026
A month ago the headlines said gold was falling. This week they say it is near a multi-week high. Both are true, and on their own neither tells you much. Price is the loud part. Common reasons investors or central banks cite to own gold are the quiet part, and they are the part that actually matters. This commentary keeps the two separate: what the price did this year, what it has done over the long run, and why neither has changed the job gold does in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. If you would rather watch than read, our financial commentary video walks through the same numbers and explains why each one matters, or does not.
This commentary is provided solely for clients and prospective clients of Keaney Financial Services Corp who are invested in, or are considering, the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. Nothing in this commentary is investment advice.
The grounds on which we hold gold in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, as this commentary documents, are that gold has historically preserved purchasing power over the long term. That has not been linear or in a straight line. In our own analysis, gold has shown significant volatility in the short term and over longer stretches, such as 1980 to 1999 or 2011 to 2021, where a conversion from gold back to dollars would have resulted in fewer dollars, as the charts below show. Since August 1971 gold has multiplied purchasing power about 12 times over, while the same money left idle kept about 12 cents on the dollar as of August 2026 [1][5]. Among the more conservative buyers in the world, central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter, a record for any second quarter, and China’s central bank has added for 20 months in a row, bringing its holdings to 2,346 tonnes, about 8 percent of its foreign reserves [3][9]. Gold has no issuer, no balance sheet and nothing to default on. Its failure mode is price, not insolvency.
What’s in the news about gold
Why the headlines changed, and what to make of them.
Gold is back in the headlines. After drifting near $4,000 an ounce through the summer, it closed at $4,393 on August 11. That is 10.7 percent above its July 16 low of $3,970, and 8.7 percent above its July 31 close of $4,041 [1][8]. A Reuters market columnist described it as one of gold’s strongest months so far this century [8]. Much of the move came during Asian trading hours [10].
A few things lined up at once. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in what markets read as a ‘dovish’ hold, employment data came in soft, and the U.S. dollar weakened, a mix that tends to support gold [8]. Renewed geopolitical tension, including between the United States and Iran, added to the backdrop [8]. Pulling the other way, longer-term Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs, which usually works against gold [8].
The louder story is who is buying. The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought about 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, more than five times the first quarter and a record for any second quarter, for roughly 345 tonnes across the first half. The same report is careful about that half-year figure: at about 345 tonnes it was the weakest first half since 2022, when it was 241 tonnes, because heavy first-quarter selling by Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan pulled the year-to-date total down [3]. China’s central bank has kept buying as well. The World Gold Council reports its official gold holdings have risen for 20 months in a row, the longest streak on record, and now stand at about 8 percent of the country’s foreign reserves [9], and its July purchase was the largest in 33 months [10]. A World Gold Council survey found a record share of central banks planning to add gold over the coming year [8].
This is where we stay careful, and where the same sources do too. As reported by Reuters, an International Monetary Fund paper this summer called gold ‘highly volatile,’ with only ‘conditional’ hedging benefits, and urged central banks to treat it as a high-risk reserve asset rather than a sure thing [8]. The World Gold Council, even while reporting record buying, expects central-bank demand in 2026 to finish below 2025, and describes reserve managers as treating gold as a long-term diversifier, not a short-term trade [3]. And with the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield at 2.43 percent on August 11, 2026, holding gold, which pays no interest, carries a real cost [4].
Closer to home, some U.S. investors moved the other way earlier this year, trimming their gold ETF holdings. The World Gold Council attributes most of that to profit-taking and rebalancing after gold’s strong run, rather than a loss of confidence, and notes that North American investors have treated price dips as chances to add [11].
So the news cuts both ways, which is exactly the point. The reasons careful buyers such as central banks hold gold, diversification and a hedge against currency and geopolitical strain, are steady and slow to change. The price and the headlines are neither. The rest of this commentary keeps those two things apart.
Gold by the Numbers
A quick snapshot in figures, August 1971 to 2026.
All four figures use LSEG daily closing prices for gold spot (XAU=). These are changes in the price of gold, not the return of any account. Historical market-price changes are shown for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as expected performance or investment results. [1]
Gold’s price today, compared with past turning points.
(Aug 15, 1971)
(March 10, 2000)
(March 11, 2020)
Each figure compares gold’s price on the date shown with its August 11, 2026 close of $4,393. Reference prices: $35 on August 15, 1971 (the official price at the Nixon shock); about $289 on March 10, 2000 (the dot-com peak); about $1,635 on March 11, 2020 (the start of the COVID pandemic). These are changes in gold’s price only, not the return of any account, and past changes do not predict future results. [1]
Gold’s price change over 1, 3, 10, 20, and 30 years, and since 1971.
Change in gold’s price from each start date to the August 11, 2026 close of $4,393. Start prices: about $3,344 (Aug 11, 2025), $1,913 (Aug 11, 2023), $1,338 (Aug 11, 2016), $632 (Aug 11, 2006), $387.40 (Aug 9, 1996), and $35 (the official price at the Nixon shock, Aug 15, 1971). These are changes in gold’s price only, not the return of any account or investment, and past performance does not predict future results. [1]
The other side of the story: how bumpy the ride has been.
Based on daily gold closing prices from March 1968 to August 11, 2026. Volatility here is realized, measured from price history rather than from options: it is the median of each calendar year’s annualized daily volatility across 59 years. A drawdown is a fall from a prior high: the typical figure is the median of each year’s largest fall, and the deepest was 69.8 percent, from $835 on January 18, 1980 to $252.30 on August 25, 1999. Recovery time is the median across 13 episodes of the time taken to regain a prior high after a fall of more than 10 percent. Best and worst are calendar-year price changes. These describe gold’s price history only, are not the return of any account, and do not predict future results. [1]
The year so far
A round trip, not a straight line.
Gold spot (XAU=), daily close, January 1 to August 11, 2026. The dashed line marks the January 2 year open. [1]
Gold opened the year at $4,330 on January 2. It then peaked at $5,399 on January 28, fell to a summer low of $3,970 on July 16, a decline of about 26.5 percent, then recovered to $4,393 on August 11, up 10.7 percent from that low. Every price in this commentary is a daily closing price, which is the cleaner measure; intraday highs and lows differ.
One point is easy to miss in the noise: measured against that January 2 open, gold is up only about 1.5 percent for the year. Most of 2026 has been a large round trip back toward where it started.
It also helps to step back from this year entirely. Gold’s role in the strategies is measured in decades, not weeks, so the more useful question is what its dollar price has done over long spans.
Seen that way, this year’s round trip is a small wiggle on a long climb in dollar terms. The honest other half is that the climb has not been a straight line. After its 1980 peak, gold fell hard and stayed down for close to twenty years, losing 69.8 percent of its dollar value, from $835 on January 18, 1980 to $252.30 on August 25, 1999, before it recovered.
Gold spot (XAU=), daily close, 1975 to 2005. The two marked points are the January 18, 1980 peak of $835 and the August 25, 1999 low of $252.30. [1]
That drop was not a mystery, and it is worth understanding. To break the high inflation of the 1970s, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to levels that look almost unbelievable today. Short-term Treasury bills reached 17.14 percent on December 11, 1980 [6]. What mattered most for gold is what came next: those rates were held well above inflation for years. Through the early 1980s, short-term bills paid roughly three to five percentage points more than inflation, year after year [5][6]. Gold pays no interest, so when safe, interest-paying choices reward you that richly even after inflation, there is little reason to hold it. Money moved toward those rates, and gold stayed out of favor for close to two decades. It is the same pressure this commentary describes elsewhere, in its most extreme form.
Long term is where gold’s store-of-value role tends to show up, and long term also includes stretches, like that one, where the price falls and stays down for years. This is history, not a promise about what comes next.
A decline tells us the price changed. Our framework sections tell us whether the reason for holding gold changed. The rest of this commentary looks at both: what came before, what changed, and the current read.
What supports gold, and what is pressuring it
Two lists, side by side.
The 10-year real yield is positive, which is a headwind for gold because gold pays no interest. We use this as a market signal, not as a recommendation to buy Treasury securities, TIPS, TIPS ETFs, or any other product.
Speculators moved back, but are not crowded
Traders re-engaged off the spring low.
Gold speculative net position (long minus short, thousands of contracts) against gold price, weekly, 2018 to August 4, 2026. [1][2]
The clearest sign that traders re-engaged is in futures positioning. The net position (long minus short) fell to about 285 thousand contracts at the late-April low, then climbed back to 411.8 thousand as of August 4, the highest reading since January. Context matters: that same net position stood near 433 thousand at the January high, and the multi-year peak in this series was roughly 908 thousand back in 2019. Re-engaged is accurate. Crowded is not.
What central banks are doing with their reserves
The slow buyer that keeps buying.
A central bank holds gold as part of its reserves, a country’s savings account. Those choices move slowly and say a lot. The World Gold Council reported central-bank net buying of about 289 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, rebounding after a softer first quarter, for roughly 345 tonnes in the first half. Poland was the largest single buyer in the quarter, adding 51 tonnes to reach 632 tonnes, and the People’s Bank of China added 33 tonnes, its largest quarterly addition since the fourth quarter of 2023. These are the World Gold Council’s figures, as of June 30, 2026. [3]
Central-bank net gold purchases by quarter, in tonnes, from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. [3]
What $100,000 really bought: three rulers
Dollars, homes, and gold are all measuring sticks.
The charts here can look dramatic, so here is how to read them calmly. Each one starts with the same $100,000 and follows it over many years. None is a scorecard for picking a winner. They show something quieter: what happens to money over long stretches, and how the answer changes depending on the ruler you measure with.
Start with the ruler itself. We price everything in dollars and treat the dollar as if it never changes. It does. By the cost-of-living measure, the same basket of goods costs about 8.2 times what it did in August 1971, so to buy what $100,000 bought then you now need about $818,400. Measured in homes the change is larger still: the median newly built U.S. home sold for about $25,300 in the third quarter of 1971 and about $410,700 in the second quarter of 2026, so the same $100,000 went from buying about four of them to buying roughly a quarter of one. The dollar did not stand still. The ruler got shorter.
What the same basket of goods costs, from August 1971 to July 2026, using the Consumer Price Index. Index values: 40.800 in August 1971 and 333.918 in July 2026. [5]
The following examples are hypothetical illustrations based on historical market data. They do not represent actual client accounts, investment results, or any KFSC strategy, and are provided solely for educational purposes.
Before adjusting for anything, here is the plain-dollar picture. These first two charts show what $100,000 would have grown to if it had simply been held in gold, or in a money market earning interest, from three different starting points.
$100,000 held in gold from three starting points, in plain dollars, to August 11, 2026. The 1971 line uses the market price then, about $44. [1]
$100,000 held in a money market, the 3-month Treasury bill rate reinvested, from the same three starting points. [6]
$100,000 from August 1971, shown in today’s purchasing power using the Consumer Price Index. Educational illustration, not investment performance. [1][5][6]
The inflation-adjusted chart takes that same $100,000 and shows what it could actually buy over time, in today’s dollars. Money left idle kept its number but lost most of its power, ending near twelve cents on the dollar. Cash in a money market, earning interest along the way, roughly kept pace with rising prices and stayed a little ahead. Gold grew its purchasing power over the full span, but not in a straight line: for about two decades after 1980 it lost real value and stayed down.
The same $100,000, measured as the number of median-priced newly built U.S. homes it could buy. Newly built homes are one category that rose faster than the general cost of living. [1][6][7]
The second chart measures the same three choices in newly built homes instead of dollars, and because those homes rose faster than the general cost of living, this is the hardest ruler of the three. Idle cash fell to about a quarter of one home. Even the interest-earning money market slipped from about four homes to under three. Gold rose from about four homes to about twenty-five, though with the same large swings.
The honest read cuts both ways. Cash almost never falls, but in the low-rate years it quietly lost ground to rising prices and to homes. Gold grew over these long spans, but it swings hard and has had its own lost decades. Neither is safer in every sense, and neither wins in every sense. They do different jobs.
Each figure is a multiple of the $100,000 you started with. A number below 1x means it lost purchasing power against that ruler.
One pattern is worth noticing. The rulers agree more in recent years and disagree more over long ones. Since 2020 the cost of living and home prices moved almost together, so the columns look alike. Since 1971 they are far apart. The longer the horizon, the more the ruler you choose changes the story.
A few reminders while you look. These are educational illustrations of the metal price, a short-term cash rate, and home prices - not the return of any account, and not a prediction, and before any fees, costs, or taxes. One honest footnote: U.S. individuals could not legally own gold until the end of 1974, so the 1971 gold start is history for comparison, not something a person could have done. The point in a single line: dollars, homes, and gold are all measuring sticks, each telling a slightly different story about the same wealth. That is why gold is held as one part of a strategy, sized to the risk option a client selected - a second ruler to hold up against the dollar and a long-term store of value, not a bet that its price keeps rising.
What this means for a KFSC client invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies
Our goal is to be transparent in our thought process and educate our clients.
As of the data reviewed, our advisors’ current strategy-level read is Maintain: the decline currently reads as a correction with structural support still present, not a confirmed regime break. This read is diagnostic and subject to change as new data comes in.
Gold’s structural role remains supported within the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies. Position sizing varies by selected risk option, across the six mandates from Preservation of Capital to Aggressive Growth, and is set at the strategy and model level, not adjusted account by account.
A period like this can be a useful check-in point. If recent swings feel larger than expected, or if goals or comfort level have changed, that is worth reviewing with an advisor. The goal is not to react to one price move. The goal is to make sure the strategy selected, or being considered, still fits the level of risk a client is willing to live with over time.
Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. We measure, we say what we see, and your advisor decides what, if anything, it means for you.
Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
Sources
This commentary was prepared on August 13, 2026, using market data through August 11, 2026. References in order of appearance. Every data figure traces to a source below. Percentage and window computations were performed by Keaney Financial Services Corp directly from the exported series listed here.
[1] LSEG Workspace. (2026, August 11). Daily series: gold spot (XAU=), US 10-year benchmark yield (US10YT=RR), dollar index (.DXY), USD/JPY (JPY=), USD/CHF (CHF=), 1968 to August 11, 2026 [Data export]. Cited for: the 2026 price path, the January 28 high, the July 16 low, the August 11 close, the long-run price history behind the volatility, drawdown and recovery figures, and the ounce comparison. The $35 figure is the official U.S. gold price before August 15, 1971.
[2] LSEG Workspace. (2026, August 10). Gold speculative positioning: net, long, and short, thousands of contracts, weekly, 2018 to August 4, 2026 [Data export]. Cited for: the net position path, the 411.8 thousand reading, the spring low near 285 thousand, and the 2019 peak near 908 thousand.
[3] World Gold Council. (2026, July). Gold Demand Trends, second quarter 2026 (data as of June 30, 2026) [Report]. Cited for: central-bank net buying of 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter, a record for any second quarter, and about 345 tonnes in the first half, which the report notes was the weakest first half since 2022 (Table 1 and the central banks section).
[4] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (DFII10), daily [Data set]. Cited for: the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield of 2.43 percent on August 11, 2026.
[5] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCNS), monthly, 1913 to July 2026 [Data set]. Cited for: the cost-of-living comparison and the inflation-adjusted $100,000 illustration.
[6] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. 3-Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate, Discount Basis (DTB3), daily, 1954 to August 11, 2026 [Data set]. Cited for: the money-market cash illustration, using the rate reinvested.
[7] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS), quarterly, 1963 to 2026 Q2 [Data set]. Published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development in the New Residential Sales release; the series covers newly built houses sold. Cited for: the third-quarter 1971 median of $25,300, the second-quarter 2026 median of $410,700, and the homes ruler.
[8] McGeever, J. (2026, August 13). Central banks spearhead renewed gold rush [Opinion column]. Reuters. Cited for: the early-August price move and its market and geopolitical drivers, the Deutsche Bank and World Gold Council survey references, China’s July reserve purchase, and the International Monetary Fund’s caution on gold. Opinions are the author’s; figures are attributed within the column to the World Gold Council, Deutsche Bank, and the IMF.
[9] World Gold Council. (2026, July 14). China gold market update: June concludes a divided H1 [Report]. Cited for: the People’s Bank of China’s 20-month streak of monthly gold purchases, the level of its official gold holdings of about 2,346 tonnes, and gold’s share of China’s official foreign-exchange reserves.
[10] World Gold Council. (2026, August 10). Weekly Markets Monitor [Report]. Cited for: gold’s early-August weekly gain, the People’s Bank of China’s July purchase as the largest in 33 months, and the Asian-hours contribution to the move.
[11] World Gold Council. (2026). Gold Demand Trends: US Focus, Q2 2026 [Report]. Cited for: U.S.-listed gold ETF outflows in the first half of 2026 and their attribution to profit-taking and rebalancing.
Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Third-party statistics are shown as published on their retrieval dates and are subject to later revision by the organizations that produce them.
1. Compliance Disclosures and Risk Warnings
This commentary is published by Keaney Financial Services Corp for educational and informational purposes only. It is a diagnostic read of the 2026 gold price move, long-run gold price history, and the monetary backdrop. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, an offer or solicitation, or a guarantee of any outcome. Past performance is not indicative of future results and does not guarantee future returns. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Markets can be volatile, and values can fluctuate due to economic, geopolitical, regulatory, and other factors. Readers should consult their own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making investment decisions. Keaney Financial Services Corp and its representatives do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any third-party data referenced herein. Precious metals risk: gold is subject to significant price volatility, pays no interest or dividends, and can lose value. Strategy Holdings Disclosure: references to gold’s role apply solely to the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and not to any other investments held within Keaney Financial Services Corp. or outside these discretionary managed accounts. This commentary is intended solely for clients and prospective clients of Keaney Financial Services Corp who are invested in, or are considering, the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies, and nothing in it is investment advice.
2. Framework and Risk Management Disclosure
The KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, including its KFSC Macro Regime Model and four diagnostic frameworks (the Monetary Integrity Framework, the Liquidity Transmission Framework, the Strategic Scarcity Framework, and the Market Structure Framework), provides analytical tools used to support advisor decision-making. These tools are not automated systems, do not predict future market outcomes, and do not dictate trades or portfolio actions. All portfolio decisions are made at the sole discretion of the advisor based on their interpretation of available data, client objectives, and prevailing market conditions. Investing involves risk, including political and geopolitical instability, changes in economic and monetary systems, currency fluctuations, market liquidity conditions, and rapid price volatility. These factors may result in significant fluctuations in portfolio value and may not be suitable for all investors. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Asset allocation, diversification, and risk management strategies are designed to manage risk but do not guarantee profits or protect against losses.
3. Forward-Looking Statements Disclosure
This commentary contains interpretive analysis of gold prices and the monetary conditions around them, written in clear, everyday language for a general reader. These statements are based on current observations, publicly-reported information, and analytical interpretation. There is no assurance that current conditions will continue or follow any particular path. Any discussion of current conditions reflects interpretive analysis and is not a definitive explanation of causation or a prediction of future results. Nothing in this commentary predicts any future gold price, central-bank action, or market outcome. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not produce forecasts. Where this commentary references forward-looking expectations, those references are intended as interpretive context drawn from publicly reported third-party sources. Forecasting future market data is not part of the firm’s analytical methodology.
4. Allocation and Positioning Disclosure
This commentary is not intended as investment advice for the general public. It is specifically prepared for clients invested in the KFSC Risk Managed Strategies and may not apply to other investments managed by advisors at Keaney Financial Services Corp. outside of these strategies. The KFSC Risk Managed Strategies are discretionary, dynamic, and adaptive. Portfolio positioning, allocations, and exposures may change at any time without notice due to evolving market conditions and the advisor’s judgment. These strategies are implemented across six distinct mandates on a spectrum from Preservation of Capital through Aggressive Growth (Preservation of Capital, Conservative, Conservative Growth, Moderate, Moderate Growth, and Aggressive Growth), each with its own risk profile, volatility expectations, and portfolio construction approach. Suitability of any particular strategy for an individual client is assessed prior to investment. While the macroeconomic themes described in this commentary are derived from the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System and inform the firm’s broader outlook, the specific asset class allocations, position sizes, and underlying holdings may differ materially across strategies, consistent with each strategy’s risk mandate.
5. Methodology and Data Disclosure
The market readings in this commentary are drawn from third-party data, each cited in the Sources. The daily gold, yield, and currency series and the weekly gold positioning series were exported from LSEG Workspace, with data through August 11, 2026 and August 4, 2026 respectively. Central-bank demand figures are from the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends for the second quarter of 2026 (data as of June 30, 2026). Consumer price, Treasury bill, inflation-indexed Treasury yield and median new-home price data are from FRED. All percentage changes, window changes, and comparisons were computed by Keaney Financial Services Corp directly from those exported series; each series’ span and frequency are stated in the Sources. All figures are third-party statistics, not measurements of any investment’s return; nothing here describes the return of any account, which would be reduced by fees, transaction costs, and taxes. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not originate underlying market or government data and contextualizes third-party data within the KFSC Macro Regime Model. All data is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed and may be revised, restated, delayed, or estimated. Produced by Keaney Financial Services Corp., prepared August 13, 2026.
6. Research, Data, and Technology Disclosure
Research, analysis, and data referenced in this material are developed through the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, which integrates multiple data sources, analytical inputs, and research processes. These sources may include contributions from non-affiliated third-party providers, such as market data vendors (e.g., LSEG), statistical agencies, central banks, and news organizations. Such sources are believed to be reliable but are not independently verified by Keaney Financial Services Corp. and may be revised. As part of the research and analytical process, advanced computational tools and artificial intelligence systems may be used to assist in organizing, synthesizing, and interpreting data. These tools support analysis within the KFSC Institutional Intelligence System, but they do not independently generate investment recommendations, make investment decisions, or replace the advisor’s judgment. All outputs are subject to human review, interpretation, and oversight. No amount of research, data analysis, or technological support can eliminate the inherent risks of investing or guarantee any specific outcome.
7. Specific Securities Disclosure
This commentary does not name, recommend, or specifically reference any individual security, exchange-traded product, fund, or financial instrument. References to gold are to the metal and its market price as a macroeconomic construct, not to any specific issuer or investment vehicle. Any exposure held in client portfolios is selected based on advisor due diligence and the risk mandate of the specific KFSC Risk Managed Strategies in which the client is invested. No portion of this commentary should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security or asset.
8. Historical Event Selection and Dataset Disclosure
The price information referenced in this material is drawn from the LSEG Workspace gold spot (XAU) series identified in the Sources. The 2026 price path, the prior-year comparisons, and the long-run ounce illustration are derived directly from that continuous series; they are descriptive periods within a single series, not discrete events selected for backtesting or trend extrapolation. Past patterns are not a reliable predictor of future patterns. All figures are as of the dates and reference periods specified and are subject to revision as new information becomes available.
9. Statistical Interpretation and Non-Predictive Use Disclosure
All figures presented, including price changes, positioning levels, peak-to-trough moves, and the ounce comparison, are drawn directly from the data identified in the Sources and are provided for descriptive and contextual purposes only. These measures do not represent expected outcomes, imply the probability of recurrence, or constitute forecasts or projections. Keaney Financial Services Corp does not claim that any condition described will continue, reverse, strengthen, or weaken. All forward-looking interpretations remain subject to uncertainty and advisor discretion.
10. Advisor Discretion Statement
All investment decisions are advisor-led and implemented through the applicable KFSC Risk Managed Strategy risk option. Clients select a risk option before investing, and position sizing is determined at the strategy/model level. Our advisors do not make individualized gold-position changes for each client within the same strategy model. Advisors may review whether a client’s selected risk option remains appropriate based on risk tolerance, objectives, time horizon, liquidity needs, and changes in financial circumstances. Models diagnose. Advisors decide. Portfolios implement.
11. Business Entity Disclosure
Keaney Financial Services Corp. provides insurance and financial services. Ameritas Investment Company, LLC (AIC), Member FINRA / SIPC, provides securities and investments. Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC (AAS) provides investment advisory services. AIC and AAS are not affiliated with Keaney Financial Services Corp. Ernesto Keaney and Emmelis Keaney are Investment Adviser Representatives of Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC. Accounts are managed on the Ameritas Wealth Platform.
Produced by Keaney Financial Services Corp · August 13, 2026